Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, June 28, 2018

June 28, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1A 3 Burnt Bluff 4.50 SCRATCH
5 5 Promises Broken 3.00 2.1 4-1
6 6 Chesapeake City 3.50 2.3 4-1
2 2 Distorted Ransom 4.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Mucho Mas Grande 4.00 4.5 8-1
1 1 Finglas 4.50 4.6 9-1
3 3 Fulkerson 5.00 5.5 10-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Vicksburg 10.00 SCRATCH
8 7 Thousand Percent 2.00 2.3 4-1
5 4 Redeye 2.50 2.5 5-1
2 1 Backtohisroots 5.00 4.3 8-1
6 5 One Bet From Even 10.00 4.6 9-1
7 6 Yankee Seven 8.00 4.8 9-1
3 2 Kool Patriot 15.00 6 11-1
9 8 Anothrdayatthelake 15.00 6 11-1
4 3 Tactical Quality 10.00 6.3 12-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Lookin for a Kiss 2.50 SCRATCH
4 4 Restless Rambler 12.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Kid Perfect 4.00 2.3 4-1
6 5 Will Call 1.20 3.1 6-1
3 3 Latent Revenge 12.00 4.1 8-1
7 6 Smart Spree 8.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Fort Fortitude 5.00 4.5 8-1
5 4 Angaston 4.50 4.6 9-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Flight Risk 2.00 2.6 5-1
4 4 Alexandros 2.50 3.3 6-1
5 5 The Moment Is Now 5.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Lielielie 8.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Sassy King 10.00 5.2 10-1
8 8 Pop Culture 10.00 5.5 10-1
1 1 Aether 10.00 6.2 12-1
9 9 Royal Edition 12.00 6.8 13-1
3 3 Free Run 20.00 7.4 14-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Two Bit Kid 6.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Ready and Rich 6.00 3.7 7-1
10 9 Souper Jackpot 5.00 4.5 9-1
7 6 Bodefecta 8.00 5.1 10-1
4 4 Mister Harvey 5.00 5.4 10-1
5 5 Tight Ten 4.50 5.5 10-1
11 10 Tobacco Road 8.00 5.6 10-1
3 3 Baytown Macca 8.00 5.6 11-1
13 12 Mr Zydeco 12.00 6.3 12-1
9 8 Mr. Ankeny 8.00 6.5 12-1
12 11 Oro de Tejano 15.00 8 15-1
2 2 J Zar 30.00 8.5 16-1
8 7 Mindprado 30.00 9.9 19-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 9 Sweeping Paddy 2.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Peru (GB) 2.50 2.7 5-1
1A 6 Coco Channel 3.50 3.3 6-1
4 4 Arch of Troy 6.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 English Affair 3.50 4.5 9-1
2 2 On My Toes 15.00 5.2 10-1
6 7 Smart Emma 12.00 5.3 10-1
7 8 Downton Kitten 10.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 Dutch Parrot 15.00 7.1 13-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Come On Dover 2.00 2 4-1
2 2 Bourbon Resolution 2.50 2.5 5-1
5 5 Front Door 4.00 4 8-1
6 6 Tiz Our Turn 4.50 4 8-1
4 4 Quality Rolls 6.00 4.9 9-1
1 1 Bryzzo 6.00 5.4 10-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Nocturnal Mission 3.50 SCRATCH
11 11 Evening Tide 5.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Kleeve Edge 15.00 SCRATCH
6 5 Naples Legacy 4.00 2.9 6-1
9 8 Kitten’s Slew 3.50 3 6-1
5 4 Big Blue Magic 4.00 4.5 8-1
7 6 Soft Cheese 4.50 4.5 9-1
4 3 Trueamericanbeauty 4.50 5.2 10-1
3 2 Front Row Debbie 12.00 5.4 10-1
1 1 Maximus Beauty 10.00 5.5 10-1
8 7 Holly Go Lightly 10.00 5.8 11-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.