June 22, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Souper Charlotte | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Cafe Mischief | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Super Simple | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Lorrie G | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bourbon ‘n Ditch | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Fightress | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Dazzle Me | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Scatrattleandroll | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Stellar Stiletto | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Stormy Sofia | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | She Loves Leather | 2.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Open Invitation | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Silver Reign | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Pinky Promise | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Masked Talent | 4.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Budget Cut | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Brunette | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Triple Kapalua | 1.80 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Vyera | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Just Hattie | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Buddy Ann | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Pebble Slinger | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sun Dress | 4.50 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Cassidy Ave | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Salvation’s Song | 30.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Victory Cigar | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | I’m Looking Up | 3.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Wild About Candy | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Jacktastic | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | No No Romeo | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Bye Bye Birdstone | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Lucky Leo | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Baron of Bluegrass | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Arch You Ready | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 8 | Ship Stalker | 2.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Catauga County | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Country Fast | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Hawk | 2.50 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | First Recruit | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Ramblingrudyrags | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Uncle Pancho | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Drunken Fridays | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Get Busy Or Die | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Gran Red | 30.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Zodiac Princess | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Elle Factor | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Foo Foo Girl | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 5 | City Diva | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Blame the Frog | 2.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Chocolate Kisses | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Nerissa | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Noble Love | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bella Marcella | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Ixtepec Town | 30.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Only Liquor | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Arch Revenge | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Conquest Wildcat | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Fancy Man | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Archie | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Googleado (ARG) | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Hugh B. | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mark My Way | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Big Coulee | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Rubus | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | John Tippmann | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Soaring Bird | 4.50 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hubbadahubbadaboom | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Full of Run | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Twin Farms | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lngtermrelationshp | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Hoonani Road | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Headsail | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Finished | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Imperial Express | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Sassy King | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Lielielie | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | American Sea | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Almoreb | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 8 | Four Knights | 2.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Sacred Walk | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tizpure | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Rickhouse | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ghost Story | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Acrobat | 15.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Market Data | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cape Crush | 30.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.