June 16, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Guest Suite | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Behavioral Bias | 1.80 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Pioneer Spirit | 2.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Thirstforlife | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Neck ‘n Neck | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Snack Shack | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Touch of Bling | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Girls Know Best | 2.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Justa Lady | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Excessivespending | 2.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Ruby Notion | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Dreamin | 15.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Making a Marc | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 8 | Kearny County | 3.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Stuart Hall | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Animus | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Own Agenda | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Mr Classical | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Firehorn | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Squardron Fourteen | 30.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mr. Macfadden | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Ipanema Beach | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Love to Share | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Brenda’s Fever | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Innocent | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Malibu Treasure | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Blessed Union | 5.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Flout | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Jing | 6.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Rehearsal Dinner | 30.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sarabi | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Stakes) – Matt Winn S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Navy Armed Guard | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Ax Man | 0.80 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Tiz Mischief | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Combatant | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Funny Duck | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | King Zachary | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Home Base | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Stakes) – Wise Dan S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Shining Copper | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | World Approval | 1.20 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Parlor | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Mr Cub | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Divisidero | 3.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Flatlined | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Mr. Misunderstood | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Inspector Lynley | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Fleur De Lis H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Valadorna | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Farrell | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Song of Spring | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Blue Prize (ARG) | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mopotism | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Awestruck | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Apologynotaccepted | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Fuhriously Kissed | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Streamline | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Stephen Foster H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Pavel | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Backyard Heaven | 1.20 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Irish War Cry | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Lookin At Lee | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Honorable Duty | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Uncle Mojo | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Patch | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Matrooh | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Hawaakom | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Regret S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Kabella | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Go Noni Go | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Beyond Blame | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Heavenly Love | 5.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 13 | 13 | Stave | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Romantic Moment | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Finess Bere (FR) | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Go Google Yourself | 10.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Secret Message | 12.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Consolida (GB) | 10.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
| 3 | 3 | She’s Pretty Lucky | 10.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Cash Out | 12.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lemon Princess | 50.00 | 10.7 | 20-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Wyatt’s Town | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Honorable Treasure | 1.60 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Nottoway | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Divine Interventio | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bold Prophet | 4.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Take Notice | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Horse Sense | 30.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | My Eminence | 2.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | News Box | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | American Greatness | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Moneymeister | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Just a Coinkydink | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Hard Fought | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Best Discretion | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.