June 14, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Unfading Beauty | 2.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mrs Rocco | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Promissory Note | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bella Moon | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Kai Nalu | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Her Kitty | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Speedmeister | 2.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Whyruawesome | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Galatasaray | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Inmyfathersimage | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Frost Or Frippery | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Under and Over | 3.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Owl Creek | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Convict Pike | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Ego Trip | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Plug Catcher | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Mr. Recio | 5.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Gostisbehere | 4.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Fifth Thief | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Misspent Youth | 4.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Derby City | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Del La Hoya | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 8 | My Perfect Graydar | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Baytown Lindy | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Richie G | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Redeye | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | One Bet From Even | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Midland | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | No Mistake N Me | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tom’s Last General | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Haynesfest | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Clever Serve | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Maho Bay | 2.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Criminal Mischief | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | As Fast as You Can | 3.50 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Enrage | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Honor With Pride | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Mr Midtown | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Lady’s Weekend | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Go for Jim | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 4 | Strike Silver | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Sir Winston | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Nitrous | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Stayonthegrind | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Two Bit Kid | 3.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Moto Moto | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Sexy Dexy | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Its a Journey | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Dutch Parrot | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Dagney’s Warrior | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | May Lily | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Ellery Lane (IRE) | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Valentine Wish | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bonnie Arch | 5.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Holiday’s Angel | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Schema | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | You Cheated | 10.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Psycho Cat | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 8 | Dynamic Response | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Claret Jug | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bwana Go | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Dirty Day | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tonbo | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Bumptybumpbump | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mucho Mas Grande | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Achiever | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.