June 10, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Naples Legacy | 1.60 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Concord Coupe | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mine Mine Mine | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Prayerofpenitence | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Complicated Lady | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Showed Up Late | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Nana’s Joy | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Absolute Love | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Evening Tide | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Corker | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Claire’s Kitty | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Key Moment | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Abstain | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Teletap | 2.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Industrialist | 1.80 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Got Gold | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Greeley Can Win | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Pop Culture | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Inclusion | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Starlin | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Gracequinnannamady | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Little Irishdancer | 1.80 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Play the Break | 2.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Bella Be Proud | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dancing Waves (IRE) | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Commercial Appeal | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Armony’s Angel | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Hassle | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Went With the Wind | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Run the Jewel | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Channeled’s Lady | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Holy Patriot | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 7A | 6 | Senorita Tapit | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Love Off | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1A | 1 | Lucky Girasol | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Silent Citizen | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | First Spring | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Mr. Recio | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 10 | Get Western | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Morning Stride | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Westernopportunity | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Storm Peak | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Pickford | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | King of Candy | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Forgotten Coast | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Pryor | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | I’ve Got Heart | 50.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Global Citizen | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Twice Mike | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Galatasaray | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Union Bowman | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Aitutaki | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Due to His Charm | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | For Goodness Sake | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Moonshiner | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Faithful Neighbor | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Red Blue and True | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Fujita Five | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Nifty Fifty | 30.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Our Lucky Break | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | True Boots | 2.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dial Me | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Nocturnal Mission | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Mizz Fabulous | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | My Aunt Beth | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Moolamiss | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Latent Revenge | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Bordini | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Malraux | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Get a Valentine | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Maniacal | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 7 | Concord Fast | 10.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Hunka Burning Love | 15.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Vici | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | The Gipper | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lawton | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Double Tuff | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mooose | 50.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Tough Stuff | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Swan of the Nile | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Natasha Fatale | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Puttinyouonthenews | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Flash n’ Dance | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Torri’s On My Mind | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Flossie | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Maisie | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Ascot Day | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Trustmore Lovemore | 8.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Scattered Rain | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Esther Rising | 15.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.