June 9, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Indigo Yankee | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Surely You Jest | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Gray Nile | 2.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Bodie Tap | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Flight Risk | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Satellite | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Blitsig | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Kamacha | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Menacing | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Kid Creed | 10.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Shanghai Point | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Cofveve | 3.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Travertine | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | B Efficient | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Drunken Fridays | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Honor Way | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Factory of Faith | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Diamonds At Dawn | 4.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Carolina Jasmine | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Proud Dixie | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Arch Arch Baby | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Big Red Seven | 3.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Confidential | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Serengeti | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Dig Charlie Dig | 2.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Zipp On By | 1.80 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Dixie Fever | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Blended Lute | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | One River Place | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Netas | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Shakurr | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Out of the Office | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Doc Kane | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Kowboy Posse | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Hear Bout It Later | 4.50 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | One Fine Ride | 4.50 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Flat Out Fast | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Starving Artist | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Cheeky Cherub | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Necessary | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Subtle Step | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Drift Away | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Breaking Beauty | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Nymue’s Treasure | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sistas Ready | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Baron of Bluegrass | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Chuck’s Dream | 1.60 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Devils Halo | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Nicodemus | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Big Island | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Eisenstaedt | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bueno Bueno Bueno | 3.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Superior’s Boy | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Win With Pride | 2.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Transatlantic Kiss | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 7A | 7 | Trustworthy | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Coleman Rocky | 2.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | British Humor | 3.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Long Gray Line | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Chesapeake City | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 3A | 3 | Uno Mas Modelo | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Dreamin | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Golden Days | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 8 | Gagaoveryou | 2.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Bowie | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Vision of Justice | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Melaleuca | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ethyl Ether | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Pastime | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Bootsy’s Hadenough | 20.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Starlight Express | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Almafuerte | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Breaking Bread | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Hell On Heels | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Belles Orb | 2.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Swinging Bridge | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Rocket Girl | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Josie the E F Five | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | No Cacha Na (CHI) | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Pretty Greeley | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Old Forester Mint Julep H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Dubara (GB) | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Lovely Bernadette | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sully’s Dream | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Victory to Victory | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Inveniam Viam | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Youngest Daughter | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Celestial Insight | 4.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Res Ipsa | 3.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Ministry | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Red Dane (ITY) | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Inchargeofme (GB) | 20.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.