May 28, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Opportunistic | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | More On Tap | 2.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Salsa’s Return | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Gizmo Jones | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Tales of War | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Glitnir | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Lily Sofia | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | You Are Invited | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Backside Belle | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Fast Girl | 3.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Klassie Connect | 2.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | B Deb’s Fortune | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Positive Vibes | 30.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Shea’s Cool | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Diamonds for Leah | 1.20 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Play the Break | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Lucy’s Revenge | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Northern Screamer | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Oro Bird | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Long On Luck | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Midnight Pleasure | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bode’s Maker | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | John Tippmann | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Moneymeister | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Doc Kane | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | American Greatness | 4.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | First Premio | 2.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Flatlined | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Zulu Alpha | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Revved Up | 2.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Great Wide Open (IRE) | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Space Mountain | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Le Ken (ARG) | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Mr Classical | 2.50 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Shoreline | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Apollo’s Leap | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Jefazo | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Katie’s Cowboy | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Kearny County | 3.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Take Notice | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Dime Dropper | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Sharky’s Ledger | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Perfect Seeker | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 3 | 3 | A. P. Royal | 12.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Dahik | 15.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Woodland Walk | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Barry Lee | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Rocking the Boat | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Control Stake | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Westfest | 2.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Spikes Shirl | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Adulation | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Knights Key | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Drop Kick | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Rubus | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 9 | Cove Blue | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Will’s Pioneer | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Bourbon Resolution | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Dreamer’s Point | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Serengeti | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Twin Farms | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Time On Target | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Full of Run | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Nottoway | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bryzzo | 15.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Chesapeake City | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Trustworthy | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Dapper Sam | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mr Darcy | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Terrible Day (ARG) | 5.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Messiah | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Grandpa’s Dream | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | My Eminence | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Strategic Ekati | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Red Clay Magic | 6.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Bantu | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.