May 27, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Lovelily | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Vyera | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Ain’t Dat Sweet | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Whenwillicuagain | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Zippy Lou | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Ghosted | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bel Canto | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Front Row Debbie | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Kitten’s Slew | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | In a Flury | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Shezaprado | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 4 | Haynesfest | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 3 | True Dream | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 5 | Sundereya | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Big Blue Magic | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Trueamericanbeauty | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Prom Theme | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Seeyouatthedisco | 1.60 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Show Me Indy | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Buch of Daisies | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Bill’s Wealthygirl | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Don’t Tell Mom | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Rilla | 12.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Budget Cut | 10.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Dynamic Response | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Leo Meister | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Stack Em High | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Spanish Mane | 3.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Orbit Earth | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Pistol Box | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | B First | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Sergeant McNerney | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Brouillard | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Higher Factor | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Pontastic | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Halifax | 2.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Burnt Bluff | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Rock Shandy | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tres Equis | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mansoor | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Midnight’s Fantasy | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Sweet Oats | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Area | 3.50 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Saracosa | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Innocent | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Auspicious Babe | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Sunapee | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | La Fee Verte | 5.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mizzen Colony | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Kissthatbabygoodby | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Sonoma Crush | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Dupree | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Mount Calvary | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Red Corvette | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Platinum Prince | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 5 | Maniacal | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 6 | Mark My Way | 30.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Chief of Staff | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Donwell | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Conquest Wildcat | 20.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mutation | 30.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Push Come to Shove | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Laney | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Abounding Joy | 2.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | It Was Considered | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | True Boots | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Bemus Point | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | What a Star | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Memorial Drive | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Mermaid of Honor | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | C P Quality | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 9 | Salt Bae | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Criminal Mischief | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Minit to Stardom | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Upset Brewing | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hint of Mint | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Maho Bay | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Crimson Creed | 30.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Quick Quick Quick | 10.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Foxy Mischief | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Orbelina | 30.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.