May 24, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Ninth Street | 2.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Chase Greatness | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Pure Speculation | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Two Bit Kid | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Stupify | 4.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Dominante | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Will Gracie Shine | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Ursula Andress (BRZ) | 2.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Myositis Mystique | 2.50 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Native Wahoo | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | North of Eden | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Acumen | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Wood Not Mind | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Ashleys Magens Bay | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Soft Cheese | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Angelo’s Ashes | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Elusive Million (IRE) | 2.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Uno Sueno | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Promises Broken | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Rocket Girl | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Riddlemeree | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Willcat | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Inca Chief | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Air Strike | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Soaring Bird | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | True to Dixie | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Tommytom | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Mjolnir | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sazerac | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Splash for Gold | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Mr. Compass | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Tenkoz | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Silver Giant | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Psycho Cat | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | I Am Ready Again | 4.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tonbo | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dirty Day | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Aviator Parks | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Gray Sky | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Bold Prophet | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Dapper Sam | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Silver Dust | 2.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Convict Pike | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Misspent Youth | 5.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Zorzor | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Super Derecho | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | King of Candy | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Global Citizen | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Capture the Glory | 30.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Astrollinthepark | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mines and Magic | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Champagne Problems | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Ministry | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Put Da Blame On Me | 4.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Impasse | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Blue Collar | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Promise of Spring | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 16 | Gray Nile | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Triple Dog Dare | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Headsail | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Makeamericagreat | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Forbidden Kitten | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Sassy King | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Blue Lute | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Eclipsed Moon | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Four Knights | 3.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Good Offense | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Vincent Van Gogo | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | The Moment Is Now | 4.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Westernopportunity | 15.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Boru | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Namarunu (GER) | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Data Gold | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.