Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, May 24, 2018

May 24, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Ninth Street 2.50 2.4 4-1
5 5 Chase Greatness 3.00 2.5 5-1
6 6 Pure Speculation 3.50 3.1 6-1
3 3 Two Bit Kid 5.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 Stupify 4.00 4.9 9-1
2 2 Dominante 5.00 5.1 10-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Will Gracie Shine 6.00 SCRATCH
7 6 Ursula Andress (BRZ) 2.00 2.1 4-1
2 1 Myositis Mystique 2.50 3.4 7-1
6 5 Native Wahoo 6.00 3.5 7-1
4 3 North of Eden 4.00 3.8 7-1
5 4 Acumen 6.00 4.5 9-1
3 2 Wood Not Mind 20.00 5.5 10-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Ashleys Magens Bay 5.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Soft Cheese 2.50 3 6-1
5 5 Angelo’s Ashes 2.50 3.1 6-1
2 2 Elusive Million (IRE) 2.00 3.4 6-1
6 6 Uno Sueno 10.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Promises Broken 8.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Rocket Girl 8.00 5.1 10-1
4 4 Riddlemeree 20.00 5.8 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Willcat 15.00 SCRATCH
6 5 Inca Chief 3.00 2.2 4-1
4 3 Air Strike 2.50 3.1 6-1
7 6 Soaring Bird 3.50 3.2 6-1
2 2 True to Dixie 5.00 4.9 9-1
8 7 Tommytom 12.00 4.9 9-1
5 4 Mjolnir 8.00 4.9 9-1
1 1 Sazerac 12.00 6.1 12-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Splash for Gold 15.00 SCRATCH
8 7 Mr. Compass 2.50 2.1 4-1
9 8 Tenkoz 3.00 2.9 5-1
7 6 Silver Giant 5.00 3.6 7-1
6 5 Psycho Cat 6.00 4.7 9-1
1 1 I Am Ready Again 4.50 4.9 9-1
4 4 Tonbo 10.00 5.8 11-1
2 2 Dirty Day 15.00 6 11-1
3 3 Aviator Parks 15.00 6.8 13-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Gray Sky 5.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Bold Prophet 3.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Dapper Sam 4.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Silver Dust 2.50 2.4 4-1
9 8 Convict Pike 3.00 2.4 5-1
7 7 Misspent Youth 5.00 4 7-1
4 4 Zorzor 4.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 Super Derecho 12.00 5 9-1
2 2 King of Candy 15.00 5.9 11-1
1 1 Global Citizen 15.00 6.2 12-1
5 5 Capture the Glory 30.00 6.9 13-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Astrollinthepark 4.00 3.1 6-1
2 2 Mines and Magic 3.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Champagne Problems 4.50 3.7 7-1
7 7 Ministry 5.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Put Da Blame On Me 4.00 4.9 9-1
8 8 Impasse 12.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 Blue Collar 8.00 5.7 11-1
3 3 Promise of Spring 8.00 6.2 12-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
16 16 Gray Nile 2.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Triple Dog Dare 2.50 SCRATCH
12 12 Headsail 20.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Makeamericagreat 4.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Forbidden Kitten 15.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Sassy King 15.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Blue Lute 2.50 2 4-1
3 3 Eclipsed Moon 6.00 4 8-1
1 1 Four Knights 3.00 5.1 10-1
8 8 Good Offense 15.00 5.5 10-1
5 5 Vincent Van Gogo 8.00 5.6 11-1
7 7 The Moment Is Now 4.00 5.6 11-1
4 4 Westernopportunity 15.00 6.1 11-1
9 9 Boru 15.00 6.1 12-1
6 6 Namarunu (GER) 12.00 6.7 13-1
2 2 Data Gold 20.00 7.5 14-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.