May 20, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Triple Kapalua | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Stylitude | 1.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Nothing But Tom | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Prayerofpenitence | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Pebble Slinger | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | You Are Invited | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Futile | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Honorable Duty | 2.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Goats Town | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Conquest Windycity | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Guest Suite | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Neck ‘n Neck | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2A | 2 | Kitten’s Solution | 1.40 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Campioni | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9A | 7 | Gorgeous Kitten | 1.40 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Brockton George | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Wicked Stride | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Hour City | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | All Right | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Marksman | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | All Hansens Ondeck | 30.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Dig Charlie Dig | 3.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Hubbadahubbadaboom | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Our Stormin Norman | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Just a Coinkydink | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | One River Place | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Indium | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Reef’s Destiny | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Honor Bar | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Fast Girl | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Curlabella | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Urawesomeblossom | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Last Tap | 3.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Puff | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Hello Linda | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Robotron | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Honor Mission | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Handsome Harve | 3.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | National Pride | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | News Box | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | The Narrowing Way | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | My Macho Mon | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Escalera | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Silky Gold | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5A | 5 | Circle Unbroken | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Blue Wings | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 6A | 6 | Arch Revenge | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Fancy Man | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Googleado (ARG) | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Archie | 3.50 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Sammy Wonder Stone | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Crackin Jon | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Big Coulee | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Tiz Our Turn | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Home Base | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Get the Facts | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Real Story | 5.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mr. Recio | 5.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Ego Trip | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Dubby Dubbie | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Ceduna | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Colour Guard | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Morning Stride | 8.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Violent Storm | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Pickford | 10.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Arched Feather | 30.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Royal Squeeze | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Icatiro | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sharp Art | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sevier | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | The Gipper | 3.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Stapleton | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Fish Trappe Road | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 16 | Area | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | First Kiss | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Flout | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Hot Rail | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Cloak of Secrecy | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Gentle Ruler | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Lemon Princess | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Smart Shot | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Actress On Board | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lessons From Avery | 10.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Snuck Out | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Persephone’s Dawn | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Final Reward | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Enough | 12.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Brassy and Sassy | 50.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Alexa’s Gold | 50.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.