May 17, 2018 Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Carlisle Belle | 2.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Stop Thinking | 1.40 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Little Nanny | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Forever Rising | 4.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Consubstantial | 4.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sweet Breeze | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Strike Play | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Outshine | 0.80 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Kitchen Soup | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Flashgun | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Rhythmia | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Gump | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Favorable Outcome | 1.60 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Hoffenheim | 2.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Classy Class | 2.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Recruiting Ready | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Candid Desire | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | With Exultation | 1.40 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Mobridge | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | High Moon | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Manifest Destiny | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Cody’s Notes | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 3 | Becker’s Galaxy | 2.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 5 | Pegasus Red | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 2 | Jet Black | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 4 | Kerry Boy | 30.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 1 | Taoiseach | 5.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Full Salute | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Very Very Stella | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Morning Buzz | 1.20 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Daddy D T | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | All Star Red | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Toga Challenger | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Deeply Undervalued | 0.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Baseline | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 4 | Acoustic | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Brianbakescookies | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Scatoga | 30.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Pirate Beach | 12.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | River of Dreams | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Pas de Deuce | 2.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | A Song for Sue | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Scripted | 5.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sophie N | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Anne’s Song | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mrs. Orb | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | The Great Johanna | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Awsum Roar | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Avery Maeve | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Tiffanys Freud | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 5 | Mahabodhi Tree | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Angel Food | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Transaction Tax | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Gypsy Janie | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Mo Flash | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ruby Warrior | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Tom’s Music | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Heza Kitten | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Power Boss | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Stock Trade | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Can Do Anything | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15A | 15 | Moneigh Moproblems | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9A | 9 | High Promise | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Freeload | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Lil Commissioner | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 4 | Generalist | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Gravitating | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Spring On Curlin | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 13 | 6 | Never Nevermore | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 5 | Hoard | 30.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 2 | Full of Hope | 15.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.