May 5, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Once On Whiskey | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Crosswalk | 2.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | United Patriot | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Honorable Treasure | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Cove Blue | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Share the Upside | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Articulator | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Private Eye | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Super Derecho | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Summer Luck | 2.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Big Gray Rocket | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Gray Sky | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Misspent Youth | 5.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Clearly Super | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | American Greatness | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Oskar Blues | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Gizmo Jones | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Krewe Chief | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Cherry Wine | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Lookin At Lee | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Irish Freedom | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Sonneteer | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Hollywood Handsome | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | No Funny Biz | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Laddie Boy | 30.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Langdarma | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Racer | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 15 | Welles Crowther | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Overzealous | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Jimmy Joe | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Almoreb | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Ding Dong Ditch | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Unbridled Rebel | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Snap Hook | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Irish Territory (IRE) | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Midnight Tea Time | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Believeinholidays | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | D Squared | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Zero Gravity | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Menacing | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Makeamericagreat | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Headsail | 20.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Somebody’s Beau | 30.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Royal Squeeze | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | McCraken | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Petrov | 4.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Dazzling Gem | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Storm Advisory | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cool Arrow | 5.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Behavioral Bias | 5.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Siem Riep | 4.50 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Heartwood | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Dan the Go to Man | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Stakes) – Humana Distaff S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Salty | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | American Gal | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Lewis Bay | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Finley’sluckycharm | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Torrent | 20.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Miner’s Cat | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Skye Diamonds | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Ivy Bell | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Longines Churchill Distaff Turf Mile S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | La Coronel | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 9 | 9 | On Leave | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Dream Awhile | 3.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Madam Dancealot (IRE) | 5.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Insta Erma | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Res Ipsa | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Madame Stripes (ARG) | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Pyscho Sister | 30.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Thundering Sky | 10.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Proctor’s Ledge | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Dream Dancing | 10.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Churchill Downs S. Presented By Twinspires.com
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Awesome Saturday | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Limousine Liberal | 4.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Awesome Slew | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Imperial Hint | 1.80 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Warrior’s Club | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Outplay | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Whitmore | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Chief Cicatriz | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Unbridled Outlaw | 30.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Conquest Windycity | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – American Turf S. Presented By Ram Trucks
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 15 | Alternative Route | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Rushing Fall | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Untamed Domain | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Threeandfourpence | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Maraud | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Captivating Moon | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 14 | 13 | Admiralty Pier | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | River Boyne (IRE) | 5.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Dragon Drew | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 16 | 14 | Tiz Mischief | 30.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Inscom | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Arawak | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Speed Franco | 6.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Channel Cat | 15.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Tigers Rule | 15.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Pont Du Gard | 50.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Pat Day Mile S. Presented By Lg And E And Ku
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Restoring Hope | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Sporting Chance | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Mask | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Seahenge | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 14 | 14 | Greyvitos | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Givemeaminit | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Madison’s Luna | 5.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | National Flag | 4.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Lombo | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mississippi | 10.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
| 13 | 13 | Shane Zain | 30.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Smart Remark | 20.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Funny Duck | 30.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 |
| 3 | 3 | New York Central | 30.00 | 10.7 | 20-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Old Forester Turf Classic S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Deauville (IRE) | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Synchrony | 5.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Beach Patrol | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Kurilov (CHI) | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Arklow | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Yoshida (JPN) | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Channel Maker | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Camelot Kitten | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Editore (BRZ) | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Shining Copper | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 12 (Stakes) – Kentucky Derby Presented By Woodford Reserve
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 21 | Blended Citizen | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Mendelssohn | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Magnum Moon | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Bolt d’Oro | 8.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Justify | 3.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 18 | 18 | Vino Rosso | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Audible | 8.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 17 | 17 | Solomini | 30.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Good Magic | 12.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 19 | 19 | Noble Indy | 30.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Promises Fulfilled | 30.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Enticed | 30.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Flameaway | 30.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Bravazo | 50.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Instilled Regard | 50.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Hofburg | 20.00 | 11.1 | 21-1 | |
| 20 | 20 | Combatant | 50.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Free Drop Billy | 30.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | My Boy Jack | 30.00 | 12.9 | 24-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Lone Sailor | 50.00 | 14.5 | 27-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Firenze Fire | 50.00 | 16.5 | 31-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 13 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Magicalmeister | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Battle At Sea | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 7 | Regal Quality | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | King Zachary | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Lionite | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Last Bad Habit | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Determinant | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | John Tippmann | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Shadow Sphinx | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Giant Honor | 30.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Lookin to Strike | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 14 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Making a Marc | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Taranto | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1A | 11 | Stuart Hall | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Limation | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Elusive Hero | 6.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Corot | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Mo Zone | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 2 | One More Tom | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Locomotion | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Leinster | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Mr. Macfadden | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.