May 5, 2018 Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Summer Punch | 1.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Jump for Joy | 1.60 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Our Whim | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Tough Old Bird | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Holy Gold | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mahvelous Marie | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Grand Valour | 2.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Causforcelebration | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Hokulea | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Cross Multiply | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Joe’s Smokin Gun | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Desert Lights | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Cantakeitanymore | 10.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Beach Access | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Brilliant Scheme | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mr. Skittles | 30.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Nucks | 30.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Sharp Bid | 50.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Jet Black | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mister Hayes | 2.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Combat Controller | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Dublinthepleasure | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Going Strong | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Chilly Bon Bon | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Micozzi | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Sister Sophia | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Misericordia (GB) | 2.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | May Flowers | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Lady Suebee | 6.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Guerriere (IRE) | 2.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Conquest Tizfire | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | China Rider | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Transaction Tax | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | San Juan Diego | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Fast Getaway | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Preternatural | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Charlie McCoy | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dry Martini | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Moses Supposes | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Quintarelli | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Ninja Boys | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Tenency | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Stakes) – Sheepshead Bay S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Holy Helena | 1.40 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Estrechada (ARG) | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Summersault | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Lottie | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Santa Monica (GB) | 2.50 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Peru (GB) | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Palinodie (FR) | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Rockford | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Getoffmyback | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Big Guy Ian | 1.60 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Too Fast to Pass | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Cause for Surprise | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Will Did It | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Conquest Twister | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Bitumen | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Miss Monk | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | La Naturel (IRE) | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | My Bronx Tail | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Battle Joined | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sensible Myth | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Tapping Colors | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Honored Promise | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Competitionofideas | 4.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Paddydunalot | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | No Deal | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Rubellite | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Broadway Run | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Jungle Rose | 15.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Currency Chaos | 30.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Morning Buzz | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Patternrecognition | 1.60 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Wonderful Light | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Helooksthepart | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Phi Beta Express | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Spartiatis | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Very Very Stella | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | True Timber | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Fort Marcy S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Manitoulin | 6.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Blacktype (FR) | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Silverwave (FR) | 2.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Robert Bruce (CHI) | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Lucullan | 12.00 | 5 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Spring Quality | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Ticonderoga | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Markitoff | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Small Bear | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Westchester S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Moe Trouble | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Tommy Macho | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Conquest Big E | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cloud Computing | 1.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Vulcan’s Forge | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tale of Silence | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 12 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Playwright | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Flipped | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Pence | 2.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Can’tweallgetalong | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Carmine’s Honor | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Bunyan’s Axe | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tammany Giant | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Burkie | 8.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Won’t Be Missed | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Mickey T | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Wicked Huntsman | 30.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Andronikos | 20.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Heroism | 30.00 | 10.3 | 20-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.