May 3, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Toothpic | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Pop Culture | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | One River Place | 2.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bobby Jack | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Inca Chief | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Berko | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Burgameister | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Electric Avenue | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Win With Pride | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Stapleton | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Divine Interventio | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | The Red Dude | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Indian Gem | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Arch Arch Baby | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Ashleys Magens Bay | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Annapolis Class | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Princess Lu Lu | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Aubrey | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Dulce de Leche | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Quiet Concert | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Union Bowman | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Politicallycorrect | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | A Bit Quick | 20.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Inmyfathersimage | 3.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Safe Passage | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Owl Creek | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Due to His Charm | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | Puffer Fish | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Toy Moon | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | New York Charmer | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Holy Patriot | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Dreaming Diamonds | 5.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Super Simple | 3.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Moonrags | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1A | 2 | Elfy | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Luna Nueva | 30.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Cafe Mischief | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Cause to Action | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Great Sky | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Dapper Sam | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Long On Luck | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Huntin Buddy | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Rowdy the Warrior | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Maximus Dan | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Jazzy Times | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | The Money Monster | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Tarpys Zapper | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Conquest Wildcat | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Sunny’s Rainbow | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Big Coulee | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Dingdingdingding | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Mr. Freud | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Opening Verse Overnight S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Pont Du Gard | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Foxtrot Charlie | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Royal Squeeze | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Mr. Misunderstood | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 9 | Shakhimat | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Flatlined | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mr Cub | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Closing Bell | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Royal Son | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Dimension (GB) | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | First Premio | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Colonelsdarktemper | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Trust Factor | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Hint of Mint | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Thirteen Songs | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Bemus Point | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | True Boots | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Naples Mist | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tiz My Lady | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | A Fashion Affair | 30.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Heavenly Hill | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Kentucky Juvenile S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Shanghaied Roo | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Best You Ever Seen | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 5 | Baytown Macca | 10.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Myhotrodlincoln | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Luv This Lifestyle | 1.40 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Weiland | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Derby City | 20.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Blazin Liason | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Mr. Granite | 30.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Sugar Cube | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Sensitive | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Now Power | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | La Sola Ranger | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Princess Erindelle | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Kylla Instinct (GB) | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Arch of Troy | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | La Sardane (FR) | 6.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Shes a True Beauty | 8.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | English Affair | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Galilea | 30.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Wicked Lick | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Eqho | 20.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.