April 28, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3A | 3 | Utmost Intensity | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Googleado (ARG) | 1.20 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Big Legacy | 2.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Midnight Shine | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5A | 4 | Red Blue and True | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Doolittle Raiders | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Buzzkillington | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Flight Risk | 1.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bow Ready | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Long Gray Line | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Move It Man | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Gray Nile | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Stack Em High | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Fidelis | 20.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Dream Fever | 3.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Charcuterie | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | D’ Cat | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Amberspatriot | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Promissory Note | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Wildcat Beauty | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Eight Thirtyone | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Heavy Roller | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Higher Factor | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 8 | Vigilante | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Go Navy Go | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Gorgeous Kitten | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Esposito | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Southern Wild | 4.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Wicked Stride | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Power Walker | 10.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Marksman | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Dahog | 30.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Gasprom | 50.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | White Gold | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Bodega Bay | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Eye On Harper | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Zipperini | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sea Shack | 4.50 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Parking Ticket | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Quiet Flattering | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Kieran Street | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Unfading Beauty | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | My Rose of Savanna | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Patti Patti Patti | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Nothing But Tom | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Faith in Jimmy | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | American Alphabet | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Urawesomeblossom | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Run Juja Run | 30.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Princess Giavanna | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Truckstop Diamond | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Meantime | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Patriot Drive | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Cruz Diez | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Plug Catcher | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Artful Union | 5.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Chantmeupbaby | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Risky Town | 15.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Forgotten Coast | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Capture the Glory | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Astrollinthepark | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Nineteenth Street | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Defy | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Treble | 2.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Wheatfield | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Miss Kentucky | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Barbary Hall | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – William Walker S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Angaston | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Battle Station | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Beckford (GB) | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Masked | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Salmanazar | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Pure Shot | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Drena’s Star | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Vitsal | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Elusive Mischief | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | I’m Corfu | 50.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Wildwoodsgreatest | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Mineyerownmalone | 2.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Pat’s Shoes | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Carouse | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Altito | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Tribal Message | 15.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Surprise Prize | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Uno Mas Modelo | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.