Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, April 22, 2018

April 22, 2018 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.


Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Town Classic 2.50 2.3 4-1
1 1 The Gipper 2.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Rapid Dial 2.50 3.6 7-1
2 2 Indian Lover 3.50 4.2 8-1
6 6 Bluegrass Gem 15.00 4.5 8-1
3 3 Junket 10.00 4.8 9-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Absolute Love 1.80 2.4 4-1
5 5 Focused 4.00 2.9 6-1
3 3 Tell Your Mama 2.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 The Girl Factor 4.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 Willowamina 15.00 4.7 9-1
1 1 Saracosa 6.00 5.1 10-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Royal Blessing 3.00 SCRATCH
6 5 Majestic Affair 2.50 2.5 5-1
4 3 Knights Key 3.50 3.3 6-1
1 1 Zulu 3.00 3.6 7-1
5 4 Whyruawesome 8.00 3.8 7-1
3 2 Hunka Burning Love 6.00 3.9 7-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Wildcat Beauty 20.00 SCRATCH
6A 6 Maho Bay 4.00 SCRATCH
10 8 Chipolina 1.80 2.5 5-1
9 7 Twice Around 12.00 4.1 8-1
3 2 Elizabeth Darcy (IRE) 2.00 4.1 8-1
7A 5 Sirenusa 4.00 4.4 8-1
8 6 Smokin Hot Momma 15.00 4.6 9-1
2 1 Magic Spell 12.00 5.4 10-1
5 4 Vanilla Cat 15.00 6.5 12-1
4 3 Santino 15.00 6.6 13-1
11 9 Tiz B B N 30.00 6.8 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Mimi’s Ruby Bobby 6.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Abounding Joy 1.40 2.2 4-1
8 8 Trace 6.00 2.5 5-1
6 6 Glitznglamour 8.00 3.3 6-1
5 5 Daisical 8.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 Showed Up Late 10.00 5.5 10-1
4 4 Penny 10.00 5.9 11-1
2 2 Believe in Victory 12.00 6.6 12-1
1 1 Heather’s Vision 10.00 6.8 13-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Bantu 3.00 2.1 4-1
7 7 Killeen 4.00 2.8 5-1
5 5 Dubby Dubbie 4.00 4.7 9-1
9 9 Come On Dover 12.00 5.1 10-1
1 1 Cullum Road 3.50 5.2 10-1
3 3 Messiah 4.50 5.8 11-1
6 6 Colonel Fred 20.00 6 11-1
2 2 Knockholt 10.00 6.1 12-1
4 4 Midnight Clear 20.00 7.1 13-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Shangroyal 3.00 3.5 7-1
8 8 Dreamer’s Point 5.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 Twin Farms 6.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Autostrade 1.80 4.4 8-1
7 7 Nottoway 12.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 Two Pops 20.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 Grade One 10.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 Chaos Theory 6.00 5.4 10-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
16 16 Kaliningrad 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Cruz Diez 15.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Plug Catcher 5.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Findley Isle 15.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Focus Group 1.60 2.6 5-1
12 12 Shortlist 6.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Zumurudee 6.00 4.7 9-1
10 10 Glad Moon (GER) 12.00 5.2 10-1
5 5 Soglio 5.00 5.2 10-1
6 6 War Daddy 5.00 5.9 11-1
7 7 Huntin Buddy 15.00 6.9 13-1
3 3 Gostisbehere 20.00 6.9 13-1
9 9 Lo’s Journey 30.00 7.4 14-1
1 1 Nice Not Nice 20.00 8 15-1
8 8 Rakeitin 50.00 8.1 15-1
4 4 Uncle Mitcho 30.00 9.1 17-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Travertine 30.00 SCRATCH
16 16 The K W Shuffle 20.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Time for War 10.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Syrup 20.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Awesome Times Two 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Ride On Faith 5.00 SCRATCH
12 10 Colonel’s Pride 4.00 2.4 4-1
11 9 Potomac 4.50 2.6 5-1
6 4 Strategic Ekati 5.00 5 9-1
10 8 Honor Mission 12.00 5.2 10-1
9 7 Cheytac 6.00 5.3 10-1
8 6 Big Bad Zin 8.00 5.3 10-1
7 5 Garey Park 6.00 5.7 11-1
2 2 Camalus 12.00 6.5 12-1
5 3 Super Factor 15.00 7.3 14-1
1 1 The Narrowing Way 20.00 8.8 17-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.