April 21, 2018 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Hay Field | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Pink Twist | 0.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Frosty Gal | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Unbridledadventure | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Beyond Discreet | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Mr Maybe | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Catcho En Die (ARG) | 2.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Souperfast | 1.80 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Aire Bueno (CHI) | 6.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Shamcat | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Voluntario | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Lucky Ramsey | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Stakes) – Woodhaven S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Nine Route | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Sand Dancer | 1.40 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Fifty | 1.80 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Archaggelos | 2.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Infield Is In | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Terry O Geri | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Midnight Mission | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Proud Zip | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Javelin | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Samadi Sky | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Conquest Expresso | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Nominal Dollars | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Marriage Fever | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Pegasus Red | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Taoiseach | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Praetereo | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Jet Black | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Alaapatique | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Bunyaan | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Tom’s Music | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Justinspeightofit | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Bunyan’s Axe | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 7 | Freeload | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Gio Lucky | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Seethisquick | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Spa Shackalacka | 5.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tammany Giant | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Reign Charger | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Guy American Dream | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Pauseforthecause | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Purely Lucky | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Goodbye Brockley | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Breezy Gal | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Codrington | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Flat Calm | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Forever Daisy | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Vip Nation | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Alley to Calvary | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Formal Event | 30.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Horoscope | 2.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Swivel | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Dynamax Prime | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Blame the Thief | 10.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Prophet’s Cat | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | J J’s Dreaming | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Light the Vow | 12.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Discreet Mission | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Dooley | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – New York Stallion S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Pure Silver | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | My Roxy Girl | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Orchid Party | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Our Super Nova | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Aunt Babe | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Wegetsdamunnys | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Baby Boss | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Cathy Naz | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Giant Boxer | 20.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Ten Eyck | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Pirelli Tower | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Flat Bill | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Santo Antonio | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Appealing Briefs | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Collective Effort | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Battle of Saratoga | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Crossways | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Bourbon Did It | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Bad Guy | 30.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Zechariah | 10.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | La Manche | 10.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Fast as Kitten | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | The Mason Factor | 15.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Joe’s Smokin Gun | 50.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Blue Pride | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.