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Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday, April 11, 2018

April 11, 2018 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.


Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Shadow Sphinx 3.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 His Royal Majesty 3.50 3.6 7-1
4 4 Trading Cash 3.50 3.8 7-1
7 7 Lookin At Blessing 4.50 3.9 7-1
5 5 Maximus Dan 4.00 4 8-1
2 2 My Foolish Beau 20.00 5.5 10-1
1 1 Paddock Crasher 5.00 6.2 12-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1A 13 Real Talk Ty 20.00 SCRATCH
2B 14 Dixie Highway 15.00 SCRATCH
11 12 Odie 2.50 2.9 6-1
9 8 Inda Zone 3.00 4.1 8-1
10 10 Hargus 4.00 5.1 10-1
6 3 Tiz Nijinsky 15.00 5.4 10-1
3C 11 War Ballad 3.00 5.6 11-1
3 9 Best You Ever Seen 3.00 5.9 11-1
8 6 Medalla de Honor 20.00 6.4 12-1
2 7 Blazin Liason 15.00 6.8 13-1
7 5 My Perfect Graydar 20.00 7.1 13-1
4 1 Land Broker 20.00 7.6 14-1
5 2 Devilish Charm 20.00 8 15-1
1 4 Two Bit Kid 20.00 9.6 18-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Calm Pacific 8.00 SCRATCH
5 5 All Out of Aces 3.00 2.4 4-1
8 7 Pat’s Shoes 3.50 2.6 5-1
4 4 Bagpipes 6.00 4.5 9-1
2 2 Woodmans Luck 5.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Orpheus (ARG) 5.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Jingle Me This 12.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 Eden Ridge 6.00 5.8 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
16 16 Cash Register 30.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Get Explicit 15.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Nymue’s Treasure 30.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Queen’s Fate 12.00 SCRATCH
8 7 Ultima D 4.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Cool Beans 4.50 4.9 9-1
12 11 Lalibela 6.00 5 10-1
2 2 Toinette 5.00 5.9 11-1
6 5 Subtle Step 4.50 6 11-1
9 8 Deadline 10.00 6 11-1
13 12 Lesley May 15.00 6.3 12-1
10 9 Saucy Dame 20.00 6.4 12-1
11 10 Over Thinking 30.00 7 13-1
7 6 La Signare (FR) 15.00 7.6 14-1
1 1 Punked (IRE) 5.00 7.6 14-1
5 4 Hey Negrita 30.00 8.4 16-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Top Me Off 15.00 SCRATCH
9 8 Ride On Faith 6.00 3.2 6-1
8 7 Out of Hydeing 8.00 4.2 8-1
7 6 Vandelay 3.50 4.2 8-1
2 2 Start With Yes 4.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Spanned 8.00 6.2 12-1
11 10 Shiitake 10.00 6.4 12-1
10 9 Lucky Britches 20.00 6.5 12-1
6 5 Boru 8.00 6.6 13-1
12 11 American Greatness 20.00 7.3 14-1
3 3 McMischief 8.00 7.3 14-1
4 4 Song of the Nile 15.00 7.7 15-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Galilea 30.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Miss O’Hara 8.00 SCRATCH
13 12 Lucky Long 5.00 4.3 8-1
8 7 Esquisse (GB) 3.50 4.3 8-1
10 9 Havana Dream 10.00 4.6 9-1
9 8 Dolce Lili 8.00 4.6 9-1
12 11 Pop By 8.00 5.7 11-1
6 5 Last Promise Kept 4.00 5.7 11-1
11 10 Thora Barber (GB) 10.00 5.9 11-1
5 4 Dawn the Destroyer 6.00 6 11-1
7 6 Valentine Rosie 12.00 7.3 14-1
3 2 Inchargeofme (GB) 10.00 7.4 14-1
4 3 You Cheated 12.00 9.4 18-1
1 1 Ethyl Ether 15.00 9.4 18-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Arabella Bella 4.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Mrs Rocco 3.50 4 7-1
8 8 D’ Cat 4.00 4.2 8-1
1 1 Tied Up 3.00 4.3 8-1
5 5 Getupbabygetup 8.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 Pure Praise 8.00 5.3 10-1
7 7 Shape of You 12.00 5.4 10-1
3 3 Medlin 8.00 6.1 11-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
13 13 Magical Sky 4.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Shakti 5.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Schema 20.00 SCRATCH
9 9 La Sola Ranger 5.00 2.8 5-1
11 10 La Sardane (FR) 3.50 3.5 7-1
2 2 Mythical Mission 3.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 Brooks House 6.00 4.8 9-1
7 7 Ladies’ Privilege 8.00 5.2 10-1
12 11 Valentine Wish 20.00 6.5 12-1
6 6 Danceland 8.00 6.9 13-1
1 1 Purely a Dream 12.00 7.2 14-1
8 8 Pour Girl 20.00 7.4 14-1
4 4 Samuna (FR) 15.00 7.5 14-1
5 5 Lola’s the One 20.00 8.1 15-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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