3/26 Recap: Yesterday brought a weird mixture of knowing my own fate. Norway bossed Albania for the vast majority of the game but took until the 70th minute to pull ahead. They delivered me a perfect score victory and I thought I was off to a glorious afternoon. Alas, before the final whistle even blew in Elbasan, Portugal were dead and buried in Switzerland. Not to say that a one-goal deficit is insurmountable, but you can gauge real quick which Portugal has shown up on the day. A pouty Ronaldo and a listless defense made me believe that small margin was a death knell. Ex (Ryan Babel) and current (Virgil van Dijk) Reds just poured gas on the dumpster fire Portuguese performance. But since I don’t like any of the UK lower tier matchups available, we’re back to international friendlies…again.
3/26 Results:
My Picks: Norway 1 Albania 0 (Under 2 total goals [+115])
Portugal 1 Netherlands 0 (Cristiano Ronaldo Scores Second Half +1400)
Actual Results: Norway 1 Albania 0
Netherlands 3 Portugal 0
Our first international “friendly” of the day takes us to Berlin to dredge up some really brutal memories for Brazilians.
INTERNATIONAL FRIENDLY
Brazil @ Germany (2:45 PM ET/ESPN3 USA, WatchESPN)
The last time these two nations faced off, it was easily the most embarrassing moment in Brazilian football history. The semi-final loss absorbed by Brazil on their home soil was a sting that would never go away. Even if Brazil takes home the trophy in Russia, that 7-1 spectre will lurk over their shoulder. So what good can this game in Berlin do for Brazil’s confidence heading into the summer?
For one, Brazil will again be without Neymar like they were that day. Manager Tite has tried out many a lineup to try to compensate for the lack of his international superstar. There could be no better team to help iron out those kinks against than the World Champions. He has plenty of in-form players and experience in this camp and made easy work of the future hosts in their first friendly of this break. Any progress they can make today is good progress.
However, Germany has taken a foot off the gas approach to international friendlies heading towards Russia. Die Mannschaft have three draws on the trot in friendlies, but those have come at England, and against France and Spain. Germany coach Joachim Low knows what he wants from his side and what you see tonight is pretty much what you are going to see in the summer.
So with Germany’s recent track record, I am leaning towards the draw pick. It is a decent value (per Bovada) for this match, even more so with a correct score behind it. And while I think Brazil is going to go harder than usual for a friendly to wipe a bit of that 7-1 taste out of their nation’s mouth, the draw will still come in.
PREDICTION: Brazil 1 Germany 1 (DRAW +235, 1-1 DRAW +500)
INTERNATIONAL FRIENDLY
Argentina @ Spain (3:30 PM ET/ESPN Deportes USA, ESPN3 USA, WatchESPN)
It may not have been in a World Cup semi-final, but Spain really wants to forget the last time they faced Argentina. Fresh off their 2010 World Cup victory, Spain was decimated in Argentina by a 4-1 margin in a game that could have been even worse. But that was a long time ago and much has changed for both sides. But some has remained quite the same.
Last time I checked, Lionel Messi still plies his trade for the Albiceleste. While he could once again be rested, like he was against Italy, Messi and Argentina’s attack can be relentless when in-form. His presence in the stadium alone inspires (and that isn’t hyperbole). Gonzalo Higuain, another man who scored in that friendly eight years ago, has been a stable talisman in Messi’s absence. Argentina is also preparing for the unspeakable life after Messi, who said this World Cup could be his last. While it is a mostly older squad at the moment, expect a decent run for relative youngsters Manuel Lanzini and Cristian Pavon tonight.
As for Spain, they’ll hope for another performance like in Germany. A smooth blend of the old guard and the new mixing in tiki-taka possession football with a razor-sharp counter-attack when opponents least expect it. After winning three straight major tournaments, La Furia Roja has been humbled at the last two, going out in the group stage in Brazil and in their first knockout game in France. But manager Julen Lopetegui is looking to usher in a new era of Spanish football.
The bookmakers (per Bovada) think this is going to be a low scoring affair. The money line is already locked and Spain as underdogs is an overwhelming favorite. While I can’t wait for the “game-time decision” time to come, I am going to assume Messi plays very little, if at all. While Argentina can still produce the goods, Spain can grind out a result at home and walk away with a W.
PREDICTION: Spain 1 Argentina 0 (Under 1.5 total goals [+230])
If you have any games you’d like me to pick over the week you can contact me on Twitter @TREVORutley. In addition to the available media listed for each game, be sure to try out our Gameview service while watching as well. Also, here is a link for my results throughout and the points system. Cheers!