3/15 Recap: I’m still in disbelief. Yesterday I picked two Europa League matches and didn’t lose my shirt. In fact, I actually came out in the positives for the first time ever picking European competitions. Red Bull Salzburg and Marseille both advanced. I hit on all but one of my props. Other than Athletic Bilbao waiting over an hour to show a pulse, yesterday was brilliant. It more than makes up for the fact that my NCAA Tournament bracket can pretty much be ripped up at this point. But it could be worse. I could be supporting a team fighting off relegation. While so many leagues have their titles sewn up, the drop in just as many cases is far from decided. Let’s take a look at a couple of games today featuring clubs attempting to stay out of harm’s way.
3/15 Results:
My picks: Athletic Bilbao 2 Olympique Marseille 2 (Bilbao scores first [-115], Marseille advances [-700], Over 2.5 total goals [EVEN])
Red Bull Salzburg 1 Borussia Dortmund 1 (Salzburg Advances [-250], DRAW match [+265])
Actual Results: Olympique Marseille 2 Athletic Bilbao 1 (Marseille scores first, advances on aggregate)
Red Bull Salzburg 0 Borussia Dortmund 0 (RB Salzburg advances on aggregate)
Spain and France get their spotlight today. I’m going to give the Bundesliga a Friday off after “traveling” to Germany for two straight Fridays.
FRENCH LIGUE 1
LOSC Lille @ AS Monaco (3:45 PM ET/beIN Sports USA, beIN Sports Connect, fuboTV, iGol)
So I made my first Ligue 1 picks of this series a couple days ago. PSG has the title locked up and one of the teams in my featured match today, Monaco, have second fairly sealed as well. But Monaco’s opponent, on the other hand, has a murky couple of months ahead staring down relegation.
When I started getting into European football, Lille was always near the top of Ligue 1. They won a domestic double in 2010-11 and were regulars in the Champions and Europa Leagues. But things started to fall apart last year when they went through three managers and finished 11th. This year has been worse. They are currently 19th in the league and haven’t won any of their last six games. Draws are currently keeping them with a glimmer of hope of survival, but that’ll be a tough ask against Monaco.
Monaco went full-Florida Marlins (i.e. firesale) this past summer losing over half of their title-winning starting XI to Europe’s big spenders. The club has reinvested that money splendidly though, even if they couldn’t repeat their magic of a year ago. My adopted French side is almost surely due to be raided again this summer.
In the reverse fixture, Monaco walloped Lille on their home ground 4-0. They are relatively healthy coming into this one which makes me expect a similar result at the Stade Louis II. The 1.5 goal line (per Bovada) is most tempting, but a flat three total goals mark for the over/under turns me off a bit. So I’ll just keep it simple.
PREDICTION: Monaco 3 Lille 0 (Monaco -1.5 [-120])
SPANISH PRIMERA DIVISION
Eibar @ Levante (4:00 PM ET/beIN Sports Connect, fuboTV, iGol)
As stated in the Barcelona/Malaga pick from last Sunday, there is only one certain relegation candidate in Spain as of now. Malaga is dead in the water, but the two teams joining them are still up in the air. One of those is Levante, who welcome Eibar to the Ciutat de Valencia this afternoon.
Relegation is a real possibility for teams 17, 18, and 19 in the Spanish table. Just five points separate the three clubs with Levante sitting in the catbird seat. They did themselves a huge favor last time out beating Getafe, ending a run of winless-ness that extended all the way to last November. Draws have been their saving grace. 12 draws is the most in La Liga.
But little Eibar, a town of under 28,000 people, is not going to go easy on them. Eibar’s first trip to the Primera Division almost ended as soon as it started. They finished 18th and were headed for relegation. But then 13th placed Elche got demoted after their clubs finances went awry and Eibar had new life. They play some of the most fun to watch football in the division and are within striking distance of a Europa League spot.
Both teams need points desperately and the game should open up from the start. I expect both teams to score and while I am picking a draw, don’t expect either side to ease back once they score. I’m going to go 2-2 but it could very well easily end 3-3 or 4-4 if the chips fall correctly.
PREDICTION: Levante 2 Eibar 2 (DRAW MATCH [+220], Both Teams Score [-105])
If you have any games you’d like me to pick over the coming week you can contact me on Twitter @TREVORutley. In addition to the available media listed for each game, be sure to try out our Gameview service while watching as well. Also, here is a link for my results throughout and the points system. Cheers!