3/14 Recap: For probably the first time in the series, I feel really good about my work yesterday. I understand the job of this is to entertain and educate, but getting things right now and again just helps build one’s confidence. Freeing myself from the Champions League chains paid dividends and it doesn’t hurt that the games were quite dramatic. Both matches saw a sending off which veered each one off its course (naturally).
PSG took their foot off the gas against Angers SCO after Thiago Motta saw red. I feel the visitors didn’t do themselves any favors waiting as long as they did to bring on their top scorer. Juventus stepped on Atalanta’s neck and killed the game after Gianluca Mancini’s second yellow. But Atalanta held firm enough to not let one goal with a man down become two or three extra after the dismissal. It was a good day of football and a better day of betting. However, now we must go back to Europe with the Europa League. Thursday is a very shallow day for options, and I don’t think people want to read a completely plagiarized analysis of Scottish development leagues or the Latvian Winter Cup.
3/14 Results:
My Picks: Paris Saint-Germain 4 Angers SCO 1 (Over 4 total goals [EVEN], Both Teams Score [+115])
Juventus 1 Atalanta 0 (Under 2.5 total goals [-150])
Actual Results: Paris Saint-Germain 2 Angers SCO 1
Juventus 2 Atalanta 0
Time to get on the waders and trudge into the muddy Europa League waters. Wish me luck. Or don’t.
UEFA EUROPA LEAGUE
Olympique Marseille @ Athletic Bilbao (2:00 PM ET/Fox Sports 2, ESPN Deportes, WatchESPN, fuboTV, SiriusXM FC 157)
As I look back at my last set of Europa League picks, I see a lot of zeroes in my points column. Neither game went as I expected, except in one aspect. The teams in this competition score goals in droves. That is why in my opinion for pure entertainment the Europa League is a better value than the Champions League. The UCL has more prestige and brings more drama for sure, but if I was trying to coax a non-soccer fan into watching the sport regularly, I’d show them a Europa League match.
So with that being said, I try my luck with the early games first, barring the noon Lokomotiv/Atletico match. Marseille and Athletic Bilbao put forth one of the five matches to feature 3+ total goals in the first leg. Having the opening leg at home is always a tough proposition, but Marseille did really well to put three past the Basque side, including one in 36 seconds from Lucas Ocampos. That was the fastest goal in the competition this year.
However, Bilbao was able to get that all so vital away goal in France, making their task at the San Mames Stadium a bit less daunting. The ageless wonder Aritz Aduriz was the man who provided that goal, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him score again in Spain.
While I think Bilbao can very much win this game on their home turf, I am predicting that Marseille’s advantage from the first leg will propel them through with a very entertaining draw. I am going to go with a couple prop bets here to hedge, but Rudi Garcia’s men go through to the quarterfinals.
PREDICTION: Athletic Bilbao 2 Olympique Marseille 2 (Bilbao scores first [-115], Marseille advances [-700], Over 2.5 total goals [EVEN])
UEFA EUROPA LEAGUE
Borussia Dortmund @ Red Bull Salzburg (4:00 PM ET/Fox Sports 2, ESPN3, WatchESPN, fuboTV, SiriusXM FC 157)
It may not be the main event of the day, but it is the most is the nearest to my heart. As we go on throughout Picks From Across The Pond, you’ll become fully aware of my portfolio of European favorites. Liverpool will always be tops personally, but having a club in every league just makes the sport more fun. Borussia Dortmund is my team in Germany and has been even before Jurgen Klopp traded black and yellow for red.
But the road to the quarterfinals for BVB is more difficult than people are letting on. I learned a very telling statistic on the radio this morning and it is one that completely swayed my pick for this one.
Borussia Dortmund is in a state of flux at the moment. They’ve already changed managers this year, parachuted out of the Champions League, and transferred out arguably their best player. Die Schwarzgelben have struggled for consistency domestically and in Europe. But this game is more about their opponent than them.
Remember that statistic I referenced a paragraph ago? Well, here it is. Red Bull Salzburg, the 4x defending Austrian champions, haven’t lost at home in two years in any competition. Europe, domestic, friendly. Red Bull Salzburg under Marco Rose does not lose at home. So with that little nugget of learning, let’s get to my bets.
I am taking Salzburg for shock advancement to the quarterfinals. Being 2-1 up in the tie means Dortmund have to score twice without conceding on a ground where that just doesn’t happen in recent times. Dortmund is somehow half a goal favorites (per Bovada) in the game, but are massive underdogs in terms of advancement. I personally like the price on my second draw of the day.
PREDICTION: Red Bull Salzburg 1 Borussia Dortmund 1 (Salzburg Advances [-250], DRAW match [+265])
If you have any games you’d like me to pick over the coming week you can contact me on Twitter @TREVORutley. In addition to the available media listed for each game, be sure to try out our Gameview service while watching as well. Also, here is a link for my results throughout and the points system. Cheers!