March 10, 2018 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Carlsbad | 1.60 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | West of Sabinal | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Fearless Kitty | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Garrison K | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Undercover Lover | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Burnt Bluff | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Rowdy N Pearls | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Jane Ran a Double | 1.40 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Vidrine’s Choice | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Deez Jitterbug | 4.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Skin Deep | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lady Fitzgerald | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Sophie’s Illusion | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Grand Fais Do Do | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Red Right Hand | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Good Offense | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Hot Springs | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Sportswear (GB) | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Sacred Walk | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Take That for Data | 5.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | It Is Time | 5.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Menacing | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Wild About Candy | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ioya Again | 6.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Rocknbowl | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Boyhood Dream | 15.00 | 7.1 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hours Truly | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Why Wear Old Shoes | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 4 | Masster Chief Ron | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | I’m Formidable | 20.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 5 | Roger Brown | 2.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Just Due | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2B | 10 | My Prophet | 2.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 2 | Made to Fit | 3.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 1A | 6 | Runaway Ide | 3.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Dats My Choice | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Zarby’s Derby Day | 8.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 11 | Pink Twice | 30.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Bold Legion | 30.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Mo’s Love | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | San Sebastiana (GB) | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Market Top | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Our Lucky Break | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Creative Thinking | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Bella Bella | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Magic Joan | 1.80 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Reine des Animaux | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | American Cowgirl | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | La Sola Ranger | 3.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Looks Super | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Rascofrade | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Altered Mind | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Trust in Diane | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Play the Break | 20.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tizahandful | 20.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Dr Liz | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Light Her Up | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Delusional K K | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Princess Samurai | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Juno’s Starlet | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tensas Thought | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Half a Go Go | 6.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Holiday Song | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Nelson J. Menard Memorial Overnight S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Trappingsofsilver | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 10 | Triple Chelsea | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | There’syourtrouble | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Stallion Heiress | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Justa Lady | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Burma Road | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Miss Gossip (IRE) | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Hotshot Anna | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Pleasant Tales | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Ours to Run | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Nineteenth Street | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Wealthy Shipman | 12.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Binding Magic | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 10 | Bernadettes Vision | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Saints N Muskets | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Miss Dun Done It | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Gone Pecan | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | A Pretty Face | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Shakopee Town | 6.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Emily Jo | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Is Too | 10.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Our Diamond | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Glorieta | 20.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Allen Black Cat Lacombe Memorial Overnight S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Katie’s Reward | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Upset Brewing | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Go Noni Go | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 9 | Kabella | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 14 | 11 | Noblame | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Deadline | 8.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Multiplayer | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Beyond Blame | 5.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Regal Dame | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Terra’s Angel | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Roussalka | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Starving Artist | 8.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Pretty Lady | 8.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Caroline the Great | 15.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | My Nilla | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Starfish Point | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Carson’s Prospect | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Twilight Star | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Desert Empress | 4.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Sofia Kape | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Wanna Snuggle | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Daylight Deelite | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mylie Idel | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.