February 19, 2018 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Hard Headed Woman | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Lovemelikeyoudo | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Peloncillo | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Timuquana Place | 3.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Rosecoloredglasses | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Casino Beach | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Call Me Sidney | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Creepy | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Going Country | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Cotton Up | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Whistling Wind | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Zar’s Star | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Lucas Henry G | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Whathadhappenwuz | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Dude Greeley | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Greeley’s Kreem | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | D’money Honey | 8.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Fame Feather | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | She’s All Skeet | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Sterling Miss | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Katie’s Reward | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Shes Our Fastest | 4.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Pocket of Candy | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Heavens Whisper | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | App | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | My Eminence | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Extricate | 1.40 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Big Island | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Bourbon Country | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Believeinholidays | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Salvation’s Song | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 8 | Golden Days | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Sundereya | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Off the List (IRE) | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | More Fun Again | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Nothing But Tom | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Avoree Noel | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Blushing Kitten | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Curlabella | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Southern Reserve | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 8 | Wild Will | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Russell Cave | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Aggravator | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Army Grey | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Jericho | 4.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Oater | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Little Sarge | 4.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Zarski | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Alaskan Causeway | 30.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Drane Fame | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Track Rose | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Windy City Girl | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Honor Bar | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Divorce | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Caribbean Soul | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | La Flor | 5.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Fiesta Moon | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Bikini Hottie | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Vernacular | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Aspiration | 10.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Staytruetodagame | 30.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Trappezoid | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | One Thirty Nine | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Dark Templar | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Lone Sailor | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Alternative Route | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | San Elijo | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bobby’s Wicked One | 4.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Big Gemmy | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Soul Beam | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Hansen’s Holiday | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Kick the Dust Up | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Tap City Danzer | 3.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Why Joey Why | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Rockin Rusty Rue | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Neon Sky | 4.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Big Shanty | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Charlie Hoss | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Come On Get Higher | 6.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Bayou Bode | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Pancho’s Lucky Boy | 6.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tune My Guitar | 20.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Jonamin | 30.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.