February 18, 2018 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Lurey An | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Charzee Baby | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Platinum Kitty | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Hot Melissa | 5.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Red La Rosa | 4.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Jack’s Gray Girl | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Commanding Action | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Amore’s Prayer | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | West of Sabinal | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Land Battle | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Drena’s Star | 1.80 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Kilroy Was Here | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Chirping | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Last Drop of Wine | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | El Rubio | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Undercover Lover | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Miss Lucky | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Alivia’s Lion | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Ultra Arumba (BRZ) | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Run to Glory | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Mellwood Summer | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Elegant Idea | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Beadsinthetrees | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Tornada | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Shatorah | 30.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 14 | Causation | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Moonlightnmidnight | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Star Too | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 9 | Lunarstrike | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Spartanburg | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Our Frosty | 8.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Flowersforlady | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Big Game Baby | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cajun English | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Fancy Pants Jen | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Minister of War | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Cinco Cinco Diez | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Air Guitar Star | 15.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | My Queen Olivia | 20.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Conscious Decision | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Tale of Beaucette | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Cool Ambition | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | A He’s an O’Prado | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Watch My Smoke | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Whateverybodywants | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Bold Star | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | West Village | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Claymaker | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Point of America | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 9 | It Is Time | 4.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Katie’s Cowboy | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | First Spring | 5.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Bora Bora | 5.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Chaos Theory | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Marmello | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Reverend Aj | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Wild About Candy | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Soul of the Hero | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | A Bag of Money | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Sweet Idi | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Belmont Hills | 20.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Haynesfest | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Bringyourownbottle | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Go Google Yourself | 2.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Taylor’s Princess | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Saguaro Row | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Chocolate Martini | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Portfolio Manager | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Chicago Blues | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Union Cat | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 9 | Thirsty Actor | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Zorzor | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Compass Zone | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 14 | 11 | Nice Not Nice | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Speedmeister | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Dontblamerocket | 4.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Glacier | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Altered Mind | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | British Humor | 20.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | King of All Media | 15.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Norco | 20.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Our Wild Dancer | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Louisianagentleman | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Good Enough Said | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Final Deed | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | They Call Me Seb | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Classic Brahms | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Timeslikethese | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Uncommon Cat | 6.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Vicks First Pick | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.