February 17, 2018 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Chewing Candy | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Doug’s Bug | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Jackpot Johnny | 2.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | A Higher Wager | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Bigboyshowshart | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Grand Ty | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Ride | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Brave Aaron | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Grand Assembly | 30.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Special Blessing | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Eye of the Kitten | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 11 | Cloak of Secrecy | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Brenda’s Fever | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Tofino | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Last Play | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Big Blue Magic | 3.50 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Lyrical Tale | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Starving Artist | 6.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Chasing Moments | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | From the Hood | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Hayworth | 8.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Touch of Gray | 30.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Resiliency | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Sonoma Crush | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 5 | Hollywood Handsome | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lookin At Lee | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Jess I Am | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Han Sense | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | St. Louie Guy | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Stakes) – Colonel Power Overnight S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Whiskey Bravo | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Chublicious | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Imma Bling | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 9 | Will Call | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Commend | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Holding Gold | 1.60 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Line Judge | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Eden Grey’s Kitten | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Balandeen | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Kissthatbabygoodby | 12.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Partly Mocha | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Flashaway | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Stakes) – Mineshaft H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Cedartown | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | The Player | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | First Premio | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Thirstforlife | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Scuba | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Team Colors | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Rich Daddy | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | No Distortion | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Stakes) – Albert M. Stall Memorial S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Skyluck | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Malibu Bonnie | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mom’s On Strike | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Giada Vegas | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | I’m Betty G | 3.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Susie Bee | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Hallie Belle | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Shes a True Beauty | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Five Hearts | 8.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Inveniam Viam | 8.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Vagabond Princess | 20.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Rachel Alexandra S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Actress On Board | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Monomoy Girl | 1.60 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Heavenly Love | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Wonder Gadot | 4.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Patrona Margarita | 6.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Classy Act | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Testing One Two | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | She’s a Julie | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Fair Grounds H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Synchrony | 4.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | High Noon Rider | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mr. Misunderstood | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Galton | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Catcho En Die (ARG) | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Applicator | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Tiz a Slam | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Granny’s Kitten | 8.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Great Wide Open (IRE) | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 4 | 4 | One Mean Man | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Thatcher Street | 12.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Zulu Alpha | 20.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Risen Star S. Presented By Lamarque Ford
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Kentucky Club | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Instilled Regard | 1.60 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Principe Guilherme | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Bravazo | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Supreme Aura | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Noble Indy | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Ebben | 30.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Givemeaminit | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Snapper Sinclair | 8.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | High North | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 16 | Making a Marc | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Playful Cat | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 9 | Messiah | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 15 | 14 | Esken | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Achiever | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mercertown | 4.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 14 | 13 | Come On Dover | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Special Forces | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Valiantly | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Taranto | 8.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | More Than a Saint | 8.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | King of Candy | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | One More Tom | 12.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Vincent Van Gogo | 20.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Wilderness Gate | 12.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Arkadag | 12.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Princess Samurai | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 4 | Tensas Thought | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 1 | Dr Liz | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 2 | Efforting | 3.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Half a Go Go | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Nadia Anne | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 10 | Lucky Summer | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 1A | 9 | Molly Rules | 5.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 5 | Juno’s Starlet | 5.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 |
| 4 | 3 | Catherine’s Dream | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 12 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Speedy Chorde | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Coast Guard Kid | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Delta Eighty Eight | 1.20 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Arnaud | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | I Don’t Fly Coach | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Taft’s Lil Boy | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Papa Buck | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Two Date | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Firedupreadytogo | 30.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ash Tax | 30.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.