January 19, 2018 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Star Empire (GB) | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Baratti | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Conquest Expresso | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | California Swing | 3.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Spring Emperor | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Bunyaan | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Son of Oahu | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Helical Spring | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9B | 9 | Impazible Creek | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 9 | Tough Old Bird | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6B | 6 | Impazible Woman | 1.80 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8A | 8 | Catchmewithasmile | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Mazmania | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Desert Affair | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 1A | 1 | Lookin Kinda Crazy | 3.50 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | You Promise | 30.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Carlisle Belle | 10.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Wanna Be Regal | 50.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tiffany’s Vision | 20.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Miss Hot Stones | 1.20 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Pauseforthecause | 3.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | She’s Delightful | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Beautiful Buzz | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Stone Cold Flirt | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | My Roxy Girl | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Diamond Jen Brady | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Simona | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Thirsty Bird | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Dancingwthdaffodls | 2.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Megalopsychia | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | My Last Million | 4.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Parlapiano | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Card Doll | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Caribbean Girl | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Shezerfirst | 30.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Groton St Scout | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Bahnahno | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 9 | The Cake Is a Lie | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Passporttovictory | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Anna Rae | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Tiz Super | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Jump for Joy | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Holy Gold | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Shezastraybullet | 50.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Party Spot | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Jetsam Six | 8.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Diamonds N Stones | 30.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Persky’s Spirit | 50.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Scorpion Bowl | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Queen Apollo | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Puffery | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Iridescent Morn | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sunshine Gal | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Breezy Gal | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | My Lightnin Strike | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sundance Joy | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Isotope | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Gobi | 2.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Christmas Sky | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Dune Buggy | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hexameter | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Reckless Humor | 2.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Untaken | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Questeq | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – La Verdad S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Holiday Disguise | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Quezon | 1.40 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Bee Noteworthy | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Absatootly | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | She’s All Ready | 30.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Wonderment | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Palladian Bridge | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Motown Sound | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 10 | American Road | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Paid Admission | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bluegrass Singer | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Try Flying | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Pirellone | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Spin Cycle | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Big East | 50.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Clever Soul | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 4A | 4 | Open Bar | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 1A | 1 | Sierra Sun | 15.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.