January 18, 2018 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Bear’s Big Boy | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Wildwood Dejavu | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Smoking Romance | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Contrip | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Bourbon Candy | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Five Small | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Sharp Machete | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Tee’s Black Irish | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Bitsy’s Carlos | 1.60 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Thirtysix G’s | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | El Tristan | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Red Roux | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | D J Trumpet | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Special Blessing | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Saints’ Girl | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | B’s Ten | 4.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Star Performer | 4.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Be Kind | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Gia Victoria | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Jus Wow | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Peace Treaty Pat | 6.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Glispee | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Saintly Cry | 6.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bayou Lily | 8.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Carson’s Prospect | 20.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Jack’s Gray Girl | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Musket’s Cup Cake | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | R Queendom | 2.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Simply Imagine | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | I’mwildaboutcarlos | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Khaleesi’s Gift | 10.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Breezin Bye You | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Industrial Policy | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 10 | 11 | Lady Soul | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Harbor Jedi | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Sage’s Epiphany | 4.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Love On Tides | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Chantses | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Maryblueeyes | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 1A | 10 | Racey Reecey | 8.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | First Embrace | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Play the Break | 10.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Ursula Andress (BRZ) | 8.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Shamrock Star | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Baby Spencer | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Proud Dixie | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Golden Domer | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mizz Tutu | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Thirteen Songs | 4.50 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Shogood | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Will Call | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Kid Perfect | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Avanzare | 4.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Black Tavish | 4.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Great Wide Open (IRE) | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Show Bound | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Demands Attention | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Made to Fit | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Left Coast Dreams | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Full Heart | 4.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Valley of the Hide | 3.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Lahaina Lad | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Devil’s Teeth | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Swamp Ruler | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Young Corbett | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Seven Heart | 12.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Ninety One Assault | 1.80 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | In the Navy | 3.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Dapper Jack | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Marco Mischief | 4.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Fire Lake | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Last Flash | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Beau Rouge | 30.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | True Flat | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Four Leaf Chief | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | General Basil Duke | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.