December 22, 2017 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Catauga County | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Something Bird | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Fearless Kitty | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Kikinboy | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Qarth | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Shadow Sphinx | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Sterling Warrior | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Million Dollar Day | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Jus Kevin | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Big Game Baby | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Temple Shadow | 4.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Royal Alexandra | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Reine des Animaux | 4.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tap City Baby | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bold Embrace | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Holiday Song | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Zarba’s Charm | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Pea Shooter Pro | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Salute the C | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Triple Creek | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Champagne Tony | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Dancehall Jack | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Snapper Bite | 4.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Royal Mocha | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Lahaina Lad | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Bluegrass Sight | 10.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Alaskan Son (IRE) | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Billy Big (IRE) | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Speedmeister | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Rollin Smoke | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Humor | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Maximus Dan | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mighty Manfred | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Alittlevodka | 8.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Good Intent | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mas Mischief | 12.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Blushing Dreamer | 30.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Dream Gal | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Sacred Storm | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Divorce | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Atlantis | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Roussalka | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Soco Unbridled | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Offended | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | One Shot to Win | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Honor Bar | 8.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Im a Cowboy Too | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Cash First | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Ninety One Assault | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Zarb’s Gift | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | In the Navy | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Fire Lake | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Cheers to Berti | 8.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Valse | 5.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Noisey Boy | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Fist Full | 15.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dancin in the Rain | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | True Flat | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mardi Gras Mask | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Kid Creole | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Cutter Helm | 2.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Enjoy the Journey | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Stuart Hall | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Wilderness Gate | 4.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Arkadag | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Neverquitdreaming | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Rocknbowl | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Retirement Fund | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 15 | Golden Domer | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Caroline Test | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Run to Glory | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Funny Holiday | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Gagaoveryou | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Thirteen Songs | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Miss Vicki | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Baby Spencer | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Tizahandful | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Little Mizzy | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Maluku | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Our Lucky Break | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Little Snip | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tribal Transit | 15.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mellwood Summer | 12.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Empire Strikes | 12.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Lady Loretta | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 8 | A Thousand Tears | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Love This Dance | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Helen Wheels | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Custom Paint Job | 5.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lurey An | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Suzie’s Dream | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Laine’s Song | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Our Foolish Girl | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.