November 26, 2017 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8A | 8 | Karla With a K | 8.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 5 | La Majestique | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Rise Above It | 5.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | American Holiday | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Daddy’s Memory | 4.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 10A | 9 | Vilaro | 8.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ritzy Lass | 8.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | First Roar | 10.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Scatmeifucan | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Crack Your Whip | 6.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Miss Discreet | 15.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Patrick’s Day | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Adventist | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | All Right | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Eden Ridge | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Above the Bar | 5.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Aristomaches | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Repent With Me | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 7 | Day in the Sun | 10.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Jingle Me This | 15.00 | 7.1 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Dixie Kicks | 1.80 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Enotional Love | 20.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Native | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lipstickonmycollar | 1.60 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Thig Ar Latha | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Frigidish | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Forever Fara | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | In Focus | 8.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Overdraft | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Spanky | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Faster N Blazes | 5.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Dance | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Card Club | 10.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | More Monique | 8.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Security | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Sophie’s Angel | 5.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Silver Turns Gold | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Zoey’s My Girl | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Pacemaker | 15.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Honor Bar | 12.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Abby Brilliant | 30.00 | 12.1 | 23-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 8 | Secret Pleasure | 12.00 | 13.1 | 25-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Glispee | 20.00 | 13.3 | 25-1 | Scr |
| 16 | 16 | Beckhem’s Beauty | 15.00 | 13.4 | 25-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Ettalusive | 5.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Aikenetta | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Blue Ridge Girl | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Unfading Beauty | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Furtive Glance | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Butter Up Katie | 4.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lil Miss Blue Eyes | 4.50 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Twisted Adage | 8.00 | 7.1 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mostly Awesome | 12.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Double Oaked | 12.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 5 | Bloom Baby | 8.00 | 10.9 | 21-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Kauai Moments | 20.00 | 11.1 | 21-1 | Scr |
| 16 | 16 | Liza Jane | 20.00 | 12.1 | 23-1 | Scr |
| 14 | 14 | Miss Lyricist | 20.00 | 13.4 | 25-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Backside Belle | 20.00 | 13.6 | 26-1 | |
| 15 | 12 | Awesome Gal | 15.00 | 15 | 28-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Purimeter | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 13 | 9 | Smarty Kitten | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Include Indycat | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 12A | 12 | Renn Lake | 3.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 3 | Big Legacy | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 15A | 15 | Father Bud | 3.50 | 6.3 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 7 | Syrox | 10.00 | 7.1 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 7 | Trident Hero | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Stormin Greeley | 8.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 5 | Safe Passage | 4.50 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Backlash | 8.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Silver Stacker | 30.00 | 11.7 | 22-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Faithful Neighbor | 6.00 | 12.4 | 23-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Frost Or Frippery | 30.00 | 13.3 | 25-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Grosco (MEX) | 50.00 | 13.7 | 26-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 15 | Witch Doctor | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 9 | Heza Kitten | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Hallie’s Hero | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Taranto | 4.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 4 | Southsider | 8.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lion’s Share | 4.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Kentucky Club | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Ammunition | 5.00 | 9 | 17-1 | Scr |
| 12 | 12 | Blue Lute | 12.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Booming Bodhran | 15.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Take That for Data | 6.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Soul Beam | 12.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Year of the Kitten | 8.00 | 11.1 | 21-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | The Robert | 8.00 | 12.3 | 23-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 10 | Blaze a Trail | 20.00 | 12.4 | 23-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Accent of Gold | 30.00 | 13.9 | 26-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Ripe | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Just Be Frank | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Fascilitator | 2.00 | 5 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 9 | Mine My Time | 4.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | New York Central | 1.60 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Florida Boys | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 14 | 12 | Grateful Cause | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Geyser | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Pryor | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Sidney’s Ransom | 8.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 6 | Nola Win | 12.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Treetop Flyer | 20.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 2 | The Money Dance | 15.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | A Wonderful Dream | 10.00 | 11.7 | 22-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Blanco S | 50.00 | 11.7 | 22-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 8 | Giant Honor | 20.00 | 11.9 | 22-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | He’s Bankable | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Sandville | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Known But to God | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Applewood | 5.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Tiz McNamara | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Grade | 6.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Ecru | 12.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Arched Feather | 12.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Strolling | 15.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Cheytac | 15.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lngtermrelationshp | 20.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Sacred Walk | 15.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Talking Zip | 20.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Singing Bullet | 2.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Matrooh | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sightforsoreeyes | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Conquest Windycity | 3.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Curlins Vow | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Rated R Superstar | 10.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Hunka Burning Love | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Pinson | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | McCormick | 5.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Secret House | 12.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Sonoma Crush | 30.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Mom’s On Strike | 3.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Corby | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Awesome Boss | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Valentine Rosie | 10.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 10 | Precious Love | 30.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Kaylen’s Revenge | 12.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Magical Sky | 5.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Julie Darlin | 50.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 8 | Talmadge Tap | 10.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Prudence | 10.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Prado Vision | 15.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ellens Birthday | 50.00 | 11.6 | 22-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Market Top | 50.00 | 11.7 | 22-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | In a Flury | 30.00 | 11.9 | 22-1 | Scr |
| 17 | 17 | Driver’s Girl | 6.00 | 13.1 | 25-1 | Scr |
| 12 | 12 | Lovin Empire (JPN) | 10.00 | 13.3 | 25-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Decant | 15.00 | 15.5 | 29-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 12 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | My Eminence | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | C Dub | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Total Cooperation | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Souper Catch | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | River’s Edge | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 8 | Frank the Butcher | 6.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Gasaway | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | La Maquina Gris | 10.00 | 7.1 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Take the Count | 20.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Wind Rhapsody | 30.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Flight Risk | 6.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bogalusa’s Giant | 30.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Trueamericanbeauty | 50.00 | 13 | 25-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.