November 24, 2017 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Ma’am | 1.80 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cuddle Kitten | 10.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lady Soul | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ring Me Up | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Holiday’s Angel | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Cinder | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Lola Stephens | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | My Sweet Stella | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Valentine Wish | 8.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Fleet Bertie | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Classic Bo | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Blue Collar | 3.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Toasted | 3.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Candy Ruby | 4.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Imma Bling | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Fish Trappe Road | 1.80 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Still Chief | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Richie the Bull | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4A | 4 | Evader | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 5A | 5 | Badabing Badaboom | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Fleet Gold Digger | 5.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Bully Good | 12.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Tiz Funny | 3.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 2 | Ty Man | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Royal Ghost | 20.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Tiz too Much | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Pray for Kitten | 1.80 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Army Grey | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Bunzlauer | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Teenertown Prince | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | You Go Boy | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Curlins Vow | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Hay Dakota | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 11 | 10 | High Noon Rider | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Rated R Superstar | 2.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 3 | Zapperini | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Go Navy Go | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Jocker Justice | 30.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Nileator | 10.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Derby Champagne | 4.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Rebel Bull | 50.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Space Mountain | 4.50 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Cowboy Rhythm | 10.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Fifth Thief | 50.00 | 12.8 | 24-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Ryman | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Raining Moolah | 12.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Spinning Serve | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Pop Culture | 1.60 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Hong Kong Gardens | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Sergeant McNerney | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Giant’s Forrest | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 5A | 4 | Hip Four O Four | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 2A | 1 | Stryker Man | 20.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | C M Runaway | 12.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Whole Lotta Luck | 2.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Whateverybodywants | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Sekondi | 15.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Perfect Movement | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Arch Revenge | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Candy Snatcher | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Mikeandchickdidit | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Thirsty Actor | 5.00 | 7 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 2 | The Last Prophet | 10.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Hay Listen Up | 3.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Rompicapo (BRZ) | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 7 | Archangel Rose | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Dr. Philan | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Primed for Talent | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Santa Monica Beach | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Pontastic | 2.50 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Blazing Saint | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Pass Set Hit | 50.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Bumptybumpbump | 15.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Buzzkillington | 20.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Mrs. Revere S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Daddys Lil Darling | 1.40 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Westit (GB) | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Sensitive | 20.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 5 | Oh So Terrible | 50.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Journey Home | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Marina’s Legacy | 50.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Proud Reunion | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lovely Bernadette | 4.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Tamit (IRE) | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fault | 6.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | I’m Betty G | 10.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Dream Supreme S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Put Da Blame On Me | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Southern Ring | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Auntjenn | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Mayla | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Ivy Bell | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Hailstorm Slew | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Kathballu | 4.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Miss Kentucky | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Fiesta | 30.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 4 | Athena | 10.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Clark H. Presented By Norton Healthcare
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | The Player | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hoppertunity | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mo Tom | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Goats Town | 30.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Destin | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Seeking the Soul | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Honorable Duty | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Diversify | 2.50 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Good Samaritan | 8.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 12 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Adonis Creed (FR) | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 10A | 9 | Convict Pike | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Iconic | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Benefactor | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Deep Explorer | 30.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 4 | Gostisbehere | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Irish Proud | 50.00 | 8 | 15-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 8 | Watch Me Whip | 4.50 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Hard Fought | 15.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Oxford Lane | 10.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Creative Courage | 4.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Dig Charlie Dig | 20.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | |
| 14A | 12 | Outlawed | 8.00 | 12 | 23-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | D C Nine | 20.00 | 12.5 | 24-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.