November 19, 2017 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | La Jolla d’Oro | 4.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Grantastica | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Titfortat | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Archie’s Girl | 2.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Olympic Smoke | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Rockaroo | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Cash Dance | 4.50 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Muddle | 30.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Gallant Lady | 10.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Misia Sekiguchi | 15.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Tiger Lisa | 5.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | McKinli’sbabyblues | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Urawesomeblossom | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Flatout Happy | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | On the Come | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Miss D Irish | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Rosemar | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Kieran Street | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Silver Excess | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Luna Mesa | 12.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Honor Ride | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2A | 2 | Upstage | 1.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Promise of Spring | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7A | 7 | Awestruck | 1.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Wholehearted | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Tiz My Lady | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Shezappealing | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Drinks On Broadway | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 3 | Pretty Perfection | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sweet Angel Roan | 30.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 11 | 6 | Dreamin | 3.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Snack Shack | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 2 | Clairenation | 4.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 5 | Barbary Hall | 3.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 9A | 9 | Childhood | 4.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 4 | Miss Nancy | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Marquee Cal Gal | 6.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 1 | Justa Lady | 3.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 2A | 2 | Delectation (GB) | 4.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Roussalka | 4.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Kantastic | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Carolina Reaper | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bella Moon | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Fast Track Kathern | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Brilliant Destiny | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Almafuerte | 6.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Shotogoodjudgement | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Smartly | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Queen Maxine | 30.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Salsa’s Return | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Cutacorner | 12.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Moon Gate Warrior | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Dujac | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Blame Angel | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | El Bonito | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Jack Tripp | 3.50 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sugar Buzz | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tales of War | 10.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Academy Bay | 3.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | America’s Tale | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5A | 5 | Savour the Moment | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 17A | 8 | Latest Version | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Kitten’s Covergirl | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 4 | Big Red Rose | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Cloak of Secrecy | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Mizz Toshiba | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 6 | Golden Rose | 12.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 5 | Paddys Class | 5.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 6 | Alert Kitten | 5.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Hot Rail | 20.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 10 | Surely a Bullet | 30.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 8 | Henry’s Honey | 12.00 | 13 | 25-1 | Scr |
| 13 | 7 | Miracles Take Time | 10.00 | 13.3 | 25-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Lynah Rink | 12.00 | 13.5 | 26-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 2 | Smart Shot | 10.00 | 15.3 | 29-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Heaven Bound | 20.00 | 16 | 30-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Diamond Jim | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | It Is Dejavu | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Win With Pride | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Oso Ready | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sing Him a Song | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Nicky Numbers | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Chargin Storm | 6.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | North Elkhorn | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Fulkerson | 10.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Zargaux | 20.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6A | 5 | Aquamarine | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1A | 1 | Jazzy Times | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Mayor Mac | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Excitations | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Western Elegance | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Rhythm Park | 5.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Unbridled Outlaw | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bourbon Cowboy | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | Shut the Box | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Sir Navigator | 10.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Grand Candy | 4.50 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Blame Will | 15.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Mississippi | 4.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cove Blue | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Mojo Man | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 14 | 14 | One Thirty Nine | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 6 | Arkadag | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Dreaming of Jo Jo | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Sourdough | 2.50 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Lascaux | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 4 | Bartolome Murillo | 15.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Soul Beam | 12.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | Scr |
| 12 | 12 | Old Guard | 15.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Into My Dreams | 20.00 | 13 | 25-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Navy Armed Guard | 12.00 | 13 | 25-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Tapit City | 15.00 | 13.3 | 25-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Satellite | 15.00 | 13.5 | 26-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Vanquish | 12.00 | 14 | 26-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.