Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, November 19, 2017

November 19, 2017 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
5 5 La Jolla d’Oro 4.50 1.8 3-1
6 6 Grantastica 6.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Titfortat 4.00 3.5 7-1
7 7 Archie’s Girl 2.50 4 8-1
3 3 Olympic Smoke 12.00 4 8-1
9 9 Rockaroo 15.00 6.5 12-1
10 10 Cash Dance 4.50 6.8 13-1
4 4 Muddle 30.00 7.8 15-1
8 8 Gallant Lady 10.00 8.3 16-1
1 1 Misia Sekiguchi 15.00 9.8 18-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
1 1 Tiger Lisa 5.00 1.8 3-1
3 3 McKinli’sbabyblues 3.00 2 4-1
7 7 Urawesomeblossom 2.50 2.5 5-1
2 2 Flatout Happy 3.00 3.8 7-1
9 9 On the Come 12.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 Miss D Irish 12.00 6.5 12-1
6 6 Rosemar 10.00 7.3 14-1
5 5 Kieran Street 20.00 7.8 15-1
10 10 Silver Excess 20.00 9 17-1
8 8 Luna Mesa 12.00 9.3 17-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
3 3 Honor Ride 6.00 2 4-1
2A 2 Upstage 1.00 2 4-1
1 1 Promise of Spring 4.00 3 6-1
7A 7 Awestruck 1.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Wholehearted 4.00 4.8 9-1
8 8 Tiz My Lady 8.00 6 11-1
6 6 Shezappealing 15.00 7.3 14-1
5 5 Drinks On Broadway 12.00 7.8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
6 3 Pretty Perfection 2.50 1.8 3-1
3 3 Sweet Angel Roan 30.00 3.5 7-1 Scr
11 6 Dreamin 3.00 4.4 8-1
7 7 Snack Shack 12.00 4.8 9-1 Scr
5 2 Clairenation 4.50 4.8 9-1
10 5 Barbary Hall 3.00 5 9-1
9A 9 Childhood 4.00 5.6 11-1 Scr
8 4 Miss Nancy 8.00 6 11-1
1 1 Marquee Cal Gal 6.00 7.3 14-1 Scr
4 1 Justa Lady 3.00 8.3 16-1
2A 2 Delectation (GB) 4.00 9.5 18-1 Scr

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
4 4 Roussalka 4.00 1.3 2-1
2 2 Kantastic 4.00 3 6-1
7 7 Carolina Reaper 8.00 3 6-1
1 1 Bella Moon 3.50 3.3 6-1
6 6 Fast Track Kathern 4.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 Brilliant Destiny 10.00 6.3 12-1
9 9 Almafuerte 6.00 7.3 14-1
3 3 Shotogoodjudgement 15.00 7.3 14-1
10 10 Smartly 20.00 9 17-1
8 8 Queen Maxine 30.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
3 3 Salsa’s Return 2.50 1.8 3-1
10 10 Cutacorner 12.00 2.3 4-1
4 4 Moon Gate Warrior 15.00 4.5 9-1
5 5 Dujac 12.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 Blame Angel 10.00 5 9-1
7 7 El Bonito 12.00 6.5 12-1
9 9 Jack Tripp 3.50 6.8 13-1
6 6 Sugar Buzz 15.00 7.8 15-1
1 1 Tales of War 10.00 7.8 15-1
8 8 Academy Bay 3.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
1 1 America’s Tale 2.50 1 2-1
5A 5 Savour the Moment 8.00 3.3 6-1 Scr
17A 8 Latest Version 8.00 3.8 7-1
15 15 Kitten’s Covergirl 6.00 4 8-1 Scr
7 4 Big Red Rose 8.00 6.5 12-1
4 3 Cloak of Secrecy 10.00 6.8 13-1
12 12 Mizz Toshiba 12.00 7.3 14-1 Scr
6 6 Golden Rose 12.00 8.8 17-1 Scr
9 5 Paddys Class 5.00 9 17-1
11 6 Alert Kitten 5.00 9.5 18-1
2 2 Hot Rail 20.00 10.5 20-1 Scr
10 10 Surely a Bullet 30.00 11.8 22-1 Scr
8 8 Henry’s Honey 12.00 13 25-1 Scr
13 7 Miracles Take Time 10.00 13.3 25-1
16 16 Lynah Rink 12.00 13.5 26-1 Scr
3 2 Smart Shot 10.00 15.3 29-1
14 14 Heaven Bound 20.00 16 30-1 Scr

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
7 7 Diamond Jim 3.00 1 2-1
8 8 It Is Dejavu 8.00 2.8 5-1
5 5 Win With Pride 5.00 3 6-1
10 10 Oso Ready 3.50 4.3 8-1
6 6 Sing Him a Song 10.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 Nicky Numbers 10.00 6 11-1
3 3 Chargin Storm 6.00 7 13-1
4 4 North Elkhorn 15.00 7.5 14-1
9 9 Fulkerson 10.00 8.8 17-1
1 1 Zargaux 20.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
6A 5 Aquamarine 5.00 2.3 4-1
1A 1 Jazzy Times 5.00 3.3 6-1
9 8 Mayor Mac 12.00 3.8 7-1
11 10 Excitations 3.50 4 8-1
8 7 Western Elegance 15.00 5.5 10-1
12 11 Rhythm Park 5.00 5.8 11-1
7 6 Unbridled Outlaw 5.00 6 11-1
3 3 Bourbon Cowboy 15.00 6.7 13-1 Scr
2 2 Shut the Box 12.00 8 15-1
5 4 Sir Navigator 10.00 8.5 16-1
10 9 Grand Candy 4.50 9.5 18-1
4 3 Blame Will 15.00 10.5 20-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
5 5 Mississippi 4.00 1.3 2-1
2 2 Cove Blue 4.50 2.3 4-1
15 15 Mojo Man 8.00 3.5 7-1 Scr
14 14 One Thirty Nine 12.00 5.3 10-1 Scr
6 6 Arkadag 12.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 Dreaming of Jo Jo 6.00 5.5 10-1
7 7 Sourdough 2.50 7 13-1
13 13 Lascaux 15.00 8 15-1 Scr
4 4 Bartolome Murillo 15.00 9.3 17-1
16 16 Soul Beam 12.00 10.8 20-1 Scr
12 12 Old Guard 15.00 11.3 21-1
8 8 Into My Dreams 20.00 13 25-1
9 9 Navy Armed Guard 12.00 13 25-1
10 10 Tapit City 15.00 13.3 25-1
1 1 Satellite 15.00 13.5 26-1
11 11 Vanquish 12.00 14 26-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.