November 18, 2017 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Over Rider | 1.80 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bye Crazy Eyes | 2.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | United Patriot | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | In a Fog | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Dirty Diamonddeeds | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Durango Kid | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Big Exchange | 1.40 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Private Party | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Private Time | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ceeky | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Two Stepping Groom | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Thundercloud | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Royal Asset | 1.40 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Gridiron Cat | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Noshackleshere | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Junket | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Fort Fortitude | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dr. Koy | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Revenant One | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 7 | Pont Du Gard | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Mr Ashley | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Tap Daddy | 1.20 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Ebben | 3.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 6 | Sky Promise | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Machtree | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 4 | True Loyalty | 6.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Nanoosh | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Stormcoast | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Storm Peak | 12.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 2 | King Valero | 15.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Redyornothereicome | 20.00 | 11.4 | 22-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Stakes) – Bet On Sunshine S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 5 | Limousine Liberal | 0.80 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Storm Advisory | 8.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Uncontested | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Le Ken (ARG) | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Warrior’s Club | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | The Truth Or Else | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Pinson | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 3 | Sir Navigator | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Last Drop of Wine | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Birdies Honor | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Run You Down | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Dr Spaulding | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6A | 6 | Tre Lee Divine | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Rocky Roma | 6.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | Majestic Force | 6.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Cerulean Springs | 12.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Code Eleven Eleven | 8.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Big John O | 20.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Riddling Reason | 15.00 | 11.4 | 22-1 | Scr |
| 15A | 15 | Samurai Mike | 8.00 | 11.6 | 22-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 3 | Midwatch | 30.00 | 12.4 | 23-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tapitive | 15.00 | 13.9 | 26-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Pistol Box | 15.00 | 14.1 | 27-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Promises Broken | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Jokasa | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Lady Cleopatra | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Audacious Angel | 3.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Sizzle Factor | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Avisionofchocolate | 30.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Chasing the Buck | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Like a Haint | 5.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Accessorizing | 6.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 11 | She’s a Gypsy | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Absolute Love | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Let’s Roll | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Pinot | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Kabella | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Portrait of Emma | 6.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Hoptown Honey | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 10 | Sunapee | 10.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Baydar | 12.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 4 | Tiz a Legacy | 12.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | La Fee Verte | 15.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | C. S. Incharge | 10.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Curuzu | 10.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | La Dame Blanche | 12.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Samurai’s Prize | 20.00 | 14.6 | 28-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Champagne Problems | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Breaking Bread | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Mythical Tale | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ring Knocker | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Cara Blythe | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | It’s the Truth | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Starlight Express | 8.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Northern Screamer | 8.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Cardinal H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Dona Bruja (ARG) | 1.60 | 1.4 | 3-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 6 | Linda | 4.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Tricky Escape | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Beauly (GB) | 5.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 2 | Rattataptap | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | B Rockett | 30.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Res Ipsa | 8.00 | 7 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 7 | Fair Point | 8.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lovely Loyree | 15.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 4 | La Piba | 30.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 3 | Weep No More | 15.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Coco Channel | 50.00 | 10.7 | 20-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Oater | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Hay Net | 15.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Doctor Lee | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Neapolitan | 2.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Thegreatgeneration | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Real Discreet | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Polar Bear | 5.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Samargo | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Petty Gambit | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Gyroscope | 20.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.