November 17, 2017 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Salute the Warrior | 1.60 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Masked Talent | 12.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Another Stone | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Bill’s Wealthygirl | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | I Got It | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Haute Prospect | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Okbyecya | 3.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Court the Storm | 5.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Heat It Up Rich | 8.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Poseidon’s Way | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ferocious Tiger (FR) | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Wildwoodsgreatest | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Dowlingfourtyeight | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Tashreeh | 2.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Star Dog | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Belvin | 2.50 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Back Togetheragain | 12.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Aurora Way | 2.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Blueridge Traveler | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Big Dollar Bill | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Totality | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tarpon Bay Road | 3.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Hart Hills Road | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 4 | Kahramani | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Drop Dead Red | 2.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 6 | Sizzle Factor | 20.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 7 | Diamonds for Leah | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tasseography | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 3 | America Mon Amie | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Princess Drossie | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Paint the Corners | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Industrial Policy | 2.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Peru (GB) | 1.60 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sweet N Wicked | 12.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Faster N Blazes | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | Haynesfest | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Getupbabygetup | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lady Maukette | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Morning Belle | 4.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Pacemaker | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 12 | 12 | Love to Learn | 4.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Criminal Mischief | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Bodega Bay | 10.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tinabud | 8.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Miss Mercken | 15.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Kyniska | 8.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Beach Road | 20.00 | 12 | 23-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Maddy’s Sky | 20.00 | 13.8 | 26-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Decision Reversed | 4.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 3 | Izzy the Warrior | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 9A | 8 | Wing and Wheel | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tarpys Zapper | 4.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Conquest Wildcat | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Outrun the Posse | 3.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mikeandchickdidit | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Hugh B. | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 4A | 4 | Bajan Cash | 5.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Reckling | 12.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Out of Hydeing | 4.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Steel Shot | 1.80 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Freakin Joe | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | M G Warrior | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Just a Coinkydink | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 2 | Drastic | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Houseer | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Steve’s Sonata | 15.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Interlaken | 15.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Hong Kong Gardens | 12.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 5 | Greeley Can Win | 6.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Belmont Hills | 20.00 | 12 | 23-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Political Justice | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Charlesbrecknridge | 15.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Circle Unbroken | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Wild Dreams | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Twirling Cinnamon | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Two Gun Jak | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Googleado (ARG) | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Alabama Tide | 6.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Draxhall Woods | 6.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Electrifying | 6.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Oathkeeper | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Forever Sure | 15.00 | 3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 15 | 15 | Salsa’s Return | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 6 | Rapid Red | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Neoclassic | 2.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Blame Angel | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Star Cross | 8.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Alsinaafy (IRE) | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | Lucky Ramsey | 3.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Consultation | 15.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 8 | Yes I See | 12.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Rooftop View | 15.00 | 12.3 | 23-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Stone | 20.00 | 12.3 | 23-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Vedelago (IRE) | 15.00 | 13.3 | 25-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Mr. Chow | 15.00 | 14.3 | 27-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Antarctic | 4.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Bold Friends | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Bryzzo | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Forest River | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 12 | 12 | Fascilitator | 2.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 6 | Komrad | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Stuart Hall | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Globus | 10.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Zig Zillion | 15.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Caymans Cobra | 12.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 3 | Articulator | 10.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Belleville Spring | 15.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.