Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, November 17, 2017

November 17, 2017 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
1 1 Salute the Warrior 1.60 2.5 5-1
5 5 Masked Talent 12.00 2.8 5-1
7 7 Another Stone 10.00 3 6-1
8 8 Bill’s Wealthygirl 8.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 I Got It 12.00 5.5 10-1
3 3 Haute Prospect 5.00 5.5 10-1
2 2 Okbyecya 3.50 5.8 11-1
4 4 Court the Storm 5.00 6.8 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
5 5 Heat It Up Rich 8.00 2 4-1
8 8 Poseidon’s Way 8.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 Ferocious Tiger (FR) 8.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Wildwoodsgreatest 8.00 4.5 9-1
4 4 Dowlingfourtyeight 12.00 5.3 10-1
6 6 Tashreeh 2.00 5.5 10-1
2 2 Star Dog 10.00 6.3 12-1
3 3 Belvin 2.50 6.5 12-1
9 9 Back Togetheragain 12.00 8.8 17-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
5 5 Aurora Way 2.50 1.3 2-1
3 3 Blueridge Traveler 2.00 1.8 3-1
1 1 Big Dollar Bill 4.50 3.3 6-1
6 6 Totality 12.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 Tarpon Bay Road 3.00 4.5 9-1
7 7 Hart Hills Road 15.00 6.3 12-1 Scr
4 4 Kahramani 12.00 6.8 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
10 10 Drop Dead Red 2.50 1.5 3-1 Scr
6 6 Sizzle Factor 20.00 2.7 5-1 Scr
9 7 Diamonds for Leah 12.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Tasseography 12.00 5 9-1 Scr
4 3 America Mon Amie 5.00 5.5 10-1
5 4 Princess Drossie 12.00 5.5 10-1
7 5 Paint the Corners 10.00 6.5 12-1
2 2 Industrial Policy 2.00 6.5 12-1
8 6 Peru (GB) 1.60 7 13-1
1 1 Sweet N Wicked 12.00 9.8 18-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
13 13 Faster N Blazes 6.00 1.8 3-1 Scr
2 2 Haynesfest 3.00 1.8 3-1
8 8 Getupbabygetup 8.00 4.3 8-1
5 5 Lady Maukette 20.00 5 9-1
6 6 Morning Belle 4.00 5.8 11-1
14 14 Pacemaker 15.00 6.8 13-1 Scr
12 12 Love to Learn 4.00 6.8 13-1
4 4 Criminal Mischief 20.00 7.3 14-1
10 10 Bodega Bay 10.00 8.8 17-1
3 3 Tinabud 8.00 9.3 17-1
1 1 Miss Mercken 15.00 10.8 20-1
7 7 Kyniska 8.00 11.3 21-1
11 11 Beach Road 20.00 12 23-1
9 9 Maddy’s Sky 20.00 13.8 26-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
6 6 Decision Reversed 4.50 1.8 3-1 Scr
3 3 Izzy the Warrior 3.50 2.8 5-1
9A 8 Wing and Wheel 5.00 3 6-1
2 2 Tarpys Zapper 4.00 4.5 9-1
10 9 Conquest Wildcat 8.00 4.8 9-1
8 7 Outrun the Posse 3.00 6.3 12-1
1 1 Mikeandchickdidit 20.00 7 13-1
5 5 Hugh B. 20.00 7.5 14-1
4A 4 Bajan Cash 5.00 8 15-1
7 6 Reckling 12.00 9.5 18-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
7 6 Out of Hydeing 4.50 1.3 2-1
4 3 Steel Shot 1.80 1.8 3-1
10 9 Freakin Joe 6.00 3 6-1
8 7 M G Warrior 12.00 4.5 9-1
2 2 Just a Coinkydink 15.00 5.8 11-1 Scr
3 2 Drastic 15.00 7 13-1
9 8 Houseer 15.00 7.5 14-1
11 10 Steve’s Sonata 15.00 8.5 16-1
5 4 Interlaken 15.00 8.8 17-1
12 12 Hong Kong Gardens 12.00 8.8 17-1 Scr
6 5 Greeley Can Win 6.00 9.3 17-1
1 1 Belmont Hills 20.00 12 23-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
3 3 Political Justice 5.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 Charlesbrecknridge 15.00 3.3 6-1
6 6 Circle Unbroken 5.00 3.5 7-1
7 7 Wild Dreams 12.00 4.5 9-1
8 8 Twirling Cinnamon 4.00 4.8 9-1
10 10 Two Gun Jak 6.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 Googleado (ARG) 12.00 7.3 14-1
4 4 Alabama Tide 6.00 7.8 15-1
9 9 Draxhall Woods 6.00 8 15-1
5 5 Electrifying 6.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
5 5 Oathkeeper 4.00 2.3 4-1
13 13 Forever Sure 15.00 3 6-1 Scr
15 15 Salsa’s Return 4.00 3.3 6-1 Scr
6 6 Rapid Red 8.00 5 9-1
7 7 Neoclassic 2.50 5.5 10-1
14 14 Blame Angel 20.00 6.8 13-1 Scr
1 1 Star Cross 8.00 7.5 14-1
11 11 Alsinaafy (IRE) 20.00 8 15-1 Scr
2 2 Lucky Ramsey 3.00 8.8 17-1
12 12 Consultation 15.00 8.8 17-1 Scr
8 8 Yes I See 12.00 9.3 17-1
4 4 Rooftop View 15.00 12.3 23-1
3 3 Stone 20.00 12.3 23-1
10 10 Vedelago (IRE) 15.00 13.3 25-1
9 9 Mr. Chow 15.00 14.3 27-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value Scr
1 1 Antarctic 4.00 1.3 2-1
3 2 Bold Friends 6.00 2.3 4-1
5 4 Bryzzo 6.00 4.8 9-1
8 8 Forest River 20.00 5.3 10-1 Scr
12 12 Fascilitator 2.00 5.5 10-1 Scr
7 6 Komrad 20.00 5.8 11-1
9 7 Stuart Hall 12.00 6.5 12-1
6 5 Globus 10.00 8 15-1
10 8 Zig Zillion 15.00 8.5 16-1
2 2 Caymans Cobra 12.00 9.3 17-1 Scr
4 3 Articulator 10.00 9.8 18-1
11 9 Belleville Spring 15.00 11.3 21-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.