Did Masahiro Tanaka Make The Right Call Rejecting Free Agency This Offseason?

One of the biggest names that could have hit the MLB free agent market was no other than Masahiro Tanaka. However, the New York Yankees starting pitcher has decided what he will do this summer. He had the chance to either remain in his current deal or opt-out and become a free agent. But has decided to stay and play the remaining three years of his deal with the Bronx franchise.

It was certainly a tough decision because the free agent market brings uncertainty. But on the other hand, Tanaka could have easily made more money had he decided to opt-out. It wasn’t an easy decision. And let’s remember the Yankees are a team on the rise, too. After all, they reached the ALCS and lost to the Houston Astros in seven games. Houston would end up winning the World Series against Los Angeles Dodgers.

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But first, let’s dive into the numbers. Tanaka signed a seven-year, $155 million deal with the Yankees before the 2014 season. That contract tied him to the franchise until 2019, so his earliest free-agent period would be before the 2020 season. However, the contract had a clause saying that the Japanese could eventually opt-out of his deal unilaterally in 2017. He has spent four years in New York and has three remaining on his current deal.

And frankly, there couldn’t have been a worse time to opt-out of a deal if you’re Tanaka. The veteran right-hander is coming off the worst season in his career at the MLB level. He posted a 13-12 record with a 4.74 ERA in 30 starts in 178.1 innings. Prior to 2017, his highest ERA had been 3.51 back in 2015, so Tanaka allowed one more run per start ON AVERAGE. He also recorded his highest losing total, although everybody knows wins and losses do not really affect a pitcher’s upcoming contract.

Tanaka also finished with a 1.239 WHIP, 9.1 H/9, 1.8 HR/9, 2.1 BB/9, and a 4.79 K-to-BB ratio. All those numbers represent career-worsts for him. So yeah, he didn’t exactly have his best stuff. Tanaka also logged almost 21 innings less than last year despite making just one fewer starts. This suggests he was constantly removed earlier from games. That’s not a good sign for a 29-year-old pitcher with a history of arm problems in his (relatively) short stint in the Majors.

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Common sense would say Tanaka was wise to remain pat and wait until the end of his current deal. But is that really the case? He is 29, and he will be 32 by the time he hits the open market. And let’s be honest. Tanaka might be coming off a down year, but he is still an above-average starter. I mean, there’s a reason why he finished seventh in the AL Cy Young voting just one year ago, right?

Tanaka proved his worth during the postseason, where he logged 20 innings and allowed just two runs across three starts. He struck out 18 and walked just three over that span, That looks like a huge improvement compared to his regular-season numbers, right? If he can sustain that over the course of an entire season we are talking about a bonafide ace here. But at the very least, Tanaka showed he is playoff-tested. And that alone would have given him decent consideration in the open market.

No one knows the kind of contract he would have received as a free agent. But considering recent market rates, he should have at least tested the open market. This could have been his last chance of signing a mega-deal, but Tanaka preferred stability over more money. Now we just have to wait and see whether he made the right decision or not.