November 11, 2017 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 7 | Deep Sea | 5.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Delta Outlaw | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Caniform | 3.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Thaddeus | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 10A | 8 | Combat Controller | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Hard Hitter | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 8 | Playthatfunnymusic | 30.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 2A | 2 | Bar None | 5.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Little Schmo | 8.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Southern Union | 10.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Ode to the Hunt | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | One of a Kind | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Rappel | 2.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Jo’s Bold Cat | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Escape Velocity | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mr. Dougie Fresh | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Long Night | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Hy Brasil | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | City Traveler | 5.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Lost Iron | 3.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | Scr |
| 13 | 13 | Bunyaan | 15.00 | 10 | 19-1 | Scr |
| 11 | 11 | Independent Worker | 30.00 | 12.1 | 23-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 8 | Money Illusion | 20.00 | 12.9 | 24-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Runaway Lute | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Saratoga Giro | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Giantinthemoonlite | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Nobody Move | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Heavy Meddle | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tribecca | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Blue Belt | 6.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Cause for Surprise | 6.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Brimstone | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Collective Effort | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Iron Johnny | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Work of Art | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 5 | Encryption Key | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Mr. Hot Rocks | 2.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 15 | 15 | Ten Eyck | 4.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 8 | More Than a Saint | 6.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Paganini | 12.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Colonel Tom | 8.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Presentao | 20.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Mickey T | 20.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tell Me Ma | 12.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Leap to Glory | 20.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Save the Sangria | 20.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Sir Frost | 30.00 | 12.1 | 23-1 | Scr |
| 11 | 11 | Shook Em Up | 20.00 | 12.9 | 24-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Blame the Thief | 5.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Mascarello | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Dearie | 30.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 8A | 7 | Clutch Cargo | 4.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Ides of Arch | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | River Knight | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Get Game | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ross Boss | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 5 | Trophy Asset | 2.50 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 11A | 10 | Heart in Hand | 4.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Street Fightin Man | 20.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Allured | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Labeq | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Variant Perception | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Home Run Maker | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7A | 6 | Vino Rosso | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5A | 5 | Blinded Vision | 4.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 5 | Latin Quarter | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Capo Dei Capi | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 8B | 8 | Personal Time | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 11B | 9 | On Patrol | 12.00 | 7.1 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Point to Remember | 8.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Abiding Star | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 14 | 14 | Alex the Terror | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 3 | Tathqeef | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Kantune | 4.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Aquaphobia | 5.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Souper Tapit | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Slim Shadey (GB) | 8.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Toughest ‘Ombre | 12.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Tusk | 12.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | For Greater Glory | 20.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Cloontia | 6.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Classic Covey | 3.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Atlantic Sun (GB) | 20.00 | 11.1 | 21-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Total Tap | 20.00 | 11.9 | 22-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Red Smith H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Oscar Nominated | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Get Jets | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Money Multiplier | 2.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Messi (GER) | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Turco Bravo (CHI) | 3.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 11 | 9 | Tricked Up | 30.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Spring Quality | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Hunter O’Riley | 4.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Call Provision | 5.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Memories of Peter | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Soluble (GER) | 20.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | St. Louie | 20.00 | 10.9 | 21-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Giant Rocks | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Tiz Wicked | 20.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Catapult Jack | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mydadfloyd | 3.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Dooley | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | St. Patrick Frost | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 6 | Thenameescapesme | 5.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Big Auk | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Pimm’s Cup | 10.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | The I Man | 12.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Clonedsimmard | 20.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | The Donald Problem | 30.00 | 11.7 | 22-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Dublin Express | 50.00 | 11.9 | 22-1 | Scr |
| 13 | 12 | Pom Freight | 20.00 | 13.1 | 25-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.