November 4, 2017 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | The Great Samurai | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Chapin | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sutter’s Mill | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Facade | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Feistyloulabelle | 30.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | The Orphan Miracle | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Gun for Hire | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Causeway Cutie | 8.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Kentucky Dancer | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Marnesia Big Girl | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Spa Town Parade | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lil Renegade | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Slam Chowder | 3.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Milaya | 2.50 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Perina’s Pride | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Stakes) – Long Island H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Playful Sound (GB) | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Summersault | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Texting | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Arles (FR) | 1.60 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Achnaha (IRE) | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Galileo’s Song (IRE) | 3.50 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Twofer | 8.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Courageous Queen | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Go | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Lezendary | 2.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Pecan Pattie | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Overheated | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Solitary Gem | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Barrier Island | 3.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Majestic Kiss | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Nicole | 20.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Astrology Hill | 20.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 15 | Honor Up | 1.80 | 1.8 | 3-1 | Scr |
| 13 | 13 | Magnetron | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 9 | Rockin Jo | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Diamond Setter | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Big Thicket | 2.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 8 | Mr. President | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 14 | 12 | Lucky Enuff | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Paynter’s Prize | 3.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Conforto | 12.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Honor Mission | 20.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Causforcelebration | 6.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Powerstroke | 3.50 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Debauchery | 20.00 | 12.5 | 24-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Cantakeitanymore | 5.00 | 12.5 | 24-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Freudian Analyst | 30.00 | 14.3 | 27-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Won the Byng | 30.00 | 16 | 30-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Croce d’Oro | 3.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Super Hawk | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Set Me Up | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2A | 2 | Jupiter Rising | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Risky Sour | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Son of Oahu | 4.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Jegos Fire | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 6 | There Goes Ben | 5.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 14A | 14 | New Jersey John | 3.00 | 8 | 15-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 3 | Auburn Avenue | 30.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Kangaroo Style | 15.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | River Knight | 12.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | You Like That | 20.00 | 12.5 | 24-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Independent Worker | 30.00 | 14 | 26-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Patternrecognition | 3.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Spieth | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Game Over | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 3 | Starship Zeus | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Faja | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Battle Midway | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Pioneer Spirit | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 4 | Hammerin Aamer | 5.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Phi Beta Express | 1.80 | 2 | 4-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 5 | Sethary | 1.60 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Old Dubai | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Gorgeous Charli | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 4 | Forest Blue | 3.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 3 | Runaway Posse | 4.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Main Road | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 7 | Yummy Bear | 5.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Spectrolite | 6.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Portando | 8.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 7 | Hardened | 20.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 4 | Lord of Love | 15.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 | |
| 12 | 8 | Wildcatpleasures | 30.00 | 13 | 25-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Chelsey Flower S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Go Noni Go | 10.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Oldfashioned Style | 2.50 | 4 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 9 | Wise Gal | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | English Soul | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Radiant Beauty | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Raucous | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Mrs. Ramona G. | 6.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Brattata | 3.50 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Oh Zap | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | Night Time Lady | 5.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Bramble Queen | 15.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Golden Orb | 6.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Drama Run | 15.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 12 | Merger of Banks | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | I Love Jaxson | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Panama Ed | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Lutheran Rags | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Wicked Huntsman | 30.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Champagne Event | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Three Goals | 4.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Mr. Skittles | 30.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Rollo Lothbrok | 20.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Chic N Wilbur | 6.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Guy American Dream | 30.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Beach Access | 15.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Trinni Juice | 20.00 | 12 | 23-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.