October 29, 2017 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Nuclear Option | 4.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Monteleone | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bye Crazy Eyes | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Over Rider | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Fortune Cookie | 3.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Granian | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 6 | Northern Trail | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Hint of Mint | 5.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Miss Vinegar | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Miss Darley | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Memorial Drive | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 13A | 11 | Overdraft | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Baydar | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Miz K | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 4 | Lovelily | 8.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 10A | 8 | Dance Rhythms | 6.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Zoey’s My Girl | 30.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Flash n’ Dance | 3.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Biloxi Princess | 10.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | And Isles | 15.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 9 | Emmport | 1.20 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Saffron Spirit | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Saucy Dame | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Kitten’s Covergirl | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 13 | 13 | Skipped | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 4 | Miraculously | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 16 | 16 | Sweet Cause | 8.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 14 | 14 | Tapitai | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 15 | 15 | Lemon Drop Twist | 10.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 7 | Kojo’s Queen | 30.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | One Chance Fancy | 15.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Samurai’s Prize | 20.00 | 12.3 | 23-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Surely a Bullet | 20.00 | 12.8 | 24-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Leaf Blower | 30.00 | 14 | 26-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Heaven Bound | 10.00 | 14.3 | 27-1 | Scr |
| 11 | 8 | Hep to Go | 30.00 | 15.3 | 29-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Cuestion de Tiempo | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | El Mas Puro | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Point O Pines | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sensational Zip | 4.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Seven Trumpets | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Ripe | 4.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Mojo Man | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Pryor | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | New York Central | 4.50 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tiz McNamara | 8.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Cheytac | 6.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Lielielie | 15.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | She’s a Gypsy | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cheponera | 12.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Fonda Romana | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Red Ruby | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ghosted | 30.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 9 | Party Club | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Persephone’s Dawn | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Go Google Yourself | 6.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Classy Act | 3.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Mia d’Oro | 1.80 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Saintly Cry | 15.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Jan One | 20.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Brassy and Sassy | 15.00 | 12 | 23-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 7 | True Loyalty | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lion’s Share | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 1 | Hallie’s Hero | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Heza Kitten | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 5 | Discovered | 2.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Kentucky Club | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Southsider | 20.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 6 | Soul Beam | 15.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 8 | Booming Bodhran | 20.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | Scr |
| 14 | 14 | War Tom | 6.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 3 | Run Your Race | 12.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 17 | 8 | Wilderness Gate | 5.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | All Hands On Deck | 8.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Good Offense | 10.00 | 12.8 | 24-1 | Scr |
| 16 | 16 | Finished | 10.00 | 14 | 26-1 | Scr |
| 13 | 13 | Ammunition | 30.00 | 15.5 | 29-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 6 | Osceola Point | 20.00 | 16.8 | 32-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Spendthrift Juvenile Stallion S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Ezmosh | 1.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Just Be Frank | 20.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | El Rubio | 20.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | John Tippmann | 4.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | O’Malley’s March | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Dream Baby Dream | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Captivating Moon | 4.50 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Fight On | 4.50 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Rags To Riches S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Monomoy Girl | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Saguaro Row | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Missap | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Queen Mum | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Dark Artist | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | She’s Pretty Lucky | 4.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Over Thinking | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Foxtrot Sally | 6.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Firstmate | 15.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Grats Road | 15.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Spendthrift Juvenile Filly Stallion S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Sultry | 3.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Foxy Mischief | 15.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Breaking Beauty | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Aerial Assets | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Southampton Way | 4.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mia Mischief | 1.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Bibbidibobbidi Boo | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Wendy Peffercorn | 50.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 4 | Cinema Doll | 20.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Street Sense S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Honorable Treasure | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Twin Farms | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Souper Smart | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Bravazo | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ebben | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Netas | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Rubus | 4.50 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Lone Sailor | 3.50 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Renaisance Frolic | 15.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Gotta Go | 10.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Conquistador | 1.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Ceevee | 12.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Vic the Boss | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 7 | Sacred Walk | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Combined | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tapitor | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Come On Dover | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Charge Card | 30.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Combatant | 4.50 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Pickford | 15.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Jail House | 12.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Royal Edition | 30.00 | 12 | 23-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Coastbuster | 20.00 | 12.5 | 24-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.