October 21, 2017 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Lady Warrior | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Nonikas Thunder | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Charmin Dixie | 10.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Mizz Fabulous | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Superstar Diva | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Union Obsession | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 5 | Love to Learn | 5.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Silver Turns Gold | 4.50 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Tribal Transit | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Unfading Beauty | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Our Daily Bread | 15.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Whenwillicuagain | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 3 | Colombe | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Pampered Vow | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Jeanne’s Speight | 3.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Honor’s Parade | 3.50 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Brassy Rose | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Vaporman | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 3 | Sightforsoreeyes | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Seeking the Soul | 2.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Clear the Mine | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Society Beau | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Pinson | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Conquest Windycity | 2.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Kirby’s Penny | 1.20 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Fleet Bertie | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | MacCorleot | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 3 | Beach Flower | 5.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | China Grove | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Mercer Slough | 30.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Miner’s Cat | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Whole Scoop | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Coach Rocks | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Track Rose | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Security | 20.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Kitten’s Covergirl | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 3 | Sahara Breeze | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Starving Artist | 8.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mountain Momma | 8.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Outgoing | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Queen’s Fate | 8.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | C. S. Incharge | 8.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 9 | Last Play | 12.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Daddy Is a Legend | 2.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 5 | Lemon Princess | 5.00 | 13 | 25-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Big Red Rose | 20.00 | 13 | 25-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Lemon Drop Twist | 20.00 | 13.3 | 25-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 8 | As I Please | 12.00 | 13.3 | 25-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 8 | Zander Zone | 4.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | True West | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Moon Gate Warrior | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bagpipes | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 3 | Woodmans Luck | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Futile | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Mineyerownmalone | 4.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 7 | Hat of Jacks | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | El Bonito | 15.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | U. S. A. Cowboy | 12.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Back Togetheragain | 30.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 14 | Clearwater | 8.00 | 2 | 4-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 8 | America’s Tale | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Elusive Truth | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Treasure in Heaven | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Let’s Roll | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Good Creation | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 11 | 10 | Desert Isle | 6.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ruthless Child | 20.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Palmilla Moon | 15.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Curuzu | 10.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Hazana | 12.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Smart Shot | 6.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Princessof the Nyl | 15.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Woody’s Reward | 20.00 | 13.3 | 25-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Delphinia | 15.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Spellker | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | My Sweet Stella | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Eila | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 7 | Diadura | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Touch of Bling | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Smiling Causeway | 3.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Monavista Crossing | 5.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | Cherry Lodge | 3.50 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | India Mantuana | 8.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Width | 10.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Excessivespending | 8.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Love On Tides | 20.00 | 12.3 | 23-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Starlight Express | 30.00 | 14 | 26-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Lexus Raven Run S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 10 | Miss Sunset | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Pretty City Dancer | 15.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Pinch Hit | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Tequilita | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Classy Tune | 5.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Torrent | 30.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Chalon | 4.50 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Overture | 10.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Nonna Mela | 4.50 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Happy Mesa | 15.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Yorkiepoo Princess | 15.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Hallie Belle | 4.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Time to Flirt | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Katie’s Champ | 20.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Blame T J | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Jaunt | 3.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Safari Kitten | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Alinea | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Freedom | 4.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Photo Moment | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | So Charming | 6.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Graceland | 15.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Rollover Risk | 20.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.