October 19, 2017 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | C Islandsurprise | 2.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Princess Drossie | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Titanium | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Turn to Reality | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | It’s the Truth | 1.60 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Make It Maria | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Marlinspike | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Auntie’s the One | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Gull Island | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Moonlit Garden | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Kai Nalu | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Little Code | 3.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Spice Drop | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Just Be Frank | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Pete Marwick | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Meilleur | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Black Stetson | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Papa Caliente | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Great Sky | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Ciaran | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Greeley Can Win | 6.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Cause to Action | 6.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Boots | 20.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Savour the Moment | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Love Shack Baby | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Haynesfest | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Miss Katie Bug | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Mahvelous Kitten | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Security | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 14 | 14 | Sahara Breeze | 4.00 | 8 | 15-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 9 | Kabella | 8.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Caramel Cream | 15.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Last Play | 6.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 4 | Mo Chara | 20.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Deadline | 10.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Daddy Issues | 8.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Subtle Step | 12.00 | 13.5 | 26-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Prairie Citizen | 8.00 | 13.8 | 26-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Lemon Princess | 10.00 | 13.8 | 26-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 5 | All Day Trip | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | No Richie | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 3 | Weekend Town | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 6 | Neapolitan | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Revenant One | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Kitten’s Solution | 3.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 4 | Tiz too Much | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Tiz That | 8.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Street Limit | 12.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Oathkeeper | 15.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Capital Letters | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cartoon | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Fifth Title | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Bingo Kitten | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Speed Gracer | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Turf Titan | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Gio’s Calling | 3.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bombs Away | 8.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mr. Meister | 8.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Judah | 20.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Quality Indeed | 20.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Quip | 2.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Tres Equis | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Oskar Blues | 2.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Platinum Equity | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5A | 5 | Wetumka | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Leopold | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 6A | 6 | Boxing Glove | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Sycamore S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Final Copy | 12.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tasit | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Big Bend | 20.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Infinite Wisdom | 4.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Flashy Chelsey | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Canessar (FR) | 3.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Majestic Pride | 30.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Hardest Core | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Some in Tieme (BRZ) | 4.50 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Nessy | 12.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Manitoulin | 8.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Renown (GB) | 5.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tobias | 50.00 | 13 | 25-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Spinning Serve | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Nothings Changed | 10.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 4 | Nasty Critter | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 5 | Toothpic | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Make It Work | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Street Cat Sam | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Charm Offensive | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Schoenhardt | 10.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Rocky Roma | 15.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Bet It All to Win | 12.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.