October 18, 2017 Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Tiz Super | 1.80 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fortunate Queen | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Butcher Knife | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Derval | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Ouro Verde | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | You Promise | 30.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Christmas Sky | 4.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Saturdaynightfling | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Bon Heir | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Da Wildcat Girl | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Little Miss Julia | 15.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Doinwhatshelikes | 1.80 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Even Bette | 20.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 3 | Burn Control | 2.50 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Kentucky Dancer | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Americasprincess | 20.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Midnight Bounty | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Shakesperian Dream | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | Kate Is a Ten | 2.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Spa Town Parade | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Perina’s Pride | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Milaya | 2.50 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Ice Palace | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Barbados Kitten | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Final Flurry | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Increased Scrutiny | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Run Blondie Run | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Factoring | 4.00 | 5 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 11 | 11 | Julia’s Pride | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Ormolu Lu | 3.50 | 6.3 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Eternal Vow | 6.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Cleo | 4.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Special Risk | 20.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Kusama | 15.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lemondrop Lollipop | 10.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Mama’s Red Hat | 30.00 | 13.8 | 26-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 7 | More Than a Legend | 8.00 | 14 | 26-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Looking Good Carol (IRE) | 20.00 | 14.3 | 27-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 9 | French Dressing | 20.00 | 14.5 | 27-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Mentality | 1.60 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Beaux Arts | 20.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Pauseforthecause | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Codrington | 2.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Trouble for Skylar | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Blue Atlas | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Saratoga Treasure | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Barbarossa | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Perfectexpectation | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Rockin Jo | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Nolinski | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Accolade | 3.00 | 6 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 10 | Causforcelebration | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Badaboom | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | National Honor | 10.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Ten Eyck | 15.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Chasindamoney | 8.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Sim Card | 30.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sir Frost | 50.00 | 12.3 | 23-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Stormy Justin | 30.00 | 13 | 25-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | Just Bustin | 20.00 | 14 | 26-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | English Channical | 30.00 | 14.3 | 27-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 7 | Heroism | 20.00 | 15 | 28-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | La Moneda | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bree’s Got Heart | 20.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Pinchbeck | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Tiz a Kitten | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Kitty Maddnes | 5.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 9A | 9 | Frosty Lady | 2.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Eighth Commandment | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 6A | 6 | Cotton Candy Cutie | 2.50 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Land Mine | 6.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Fleet Irish | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Rock Doc | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bluegrass Express | 20.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 5 | Terry O Geri | 5.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Gorelli | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Bourbon Empire | 3.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Peak Performance | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Benevolence | 8.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Third Son | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Simona | 20.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Salty Smile | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Single Mission | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Purely Lucky | 2.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Forever Daisy | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Adorable Song | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Fiveinthemorning | 6.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 15 | 15 | Carrera Cat | 5.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 7 | Big Expense | 8.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Scatback | 8.00 | 9 | 17-1 | Scr |
| 13 | 13 | Pound Note | 5.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 3 | Sardonyx | 12.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Silverado Mist | 8.00 | 12.3 | 23-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tizengaginglysmart | 5.00 | 12.3 | 23-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Giant Zinger | 15.00 | 13.3 | 25-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.