October 14, 2017 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Perplexed | 4.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Small Town Hero | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Noshackleshere | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hurricane Force | 4.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Perfect Movement | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Hugh B. | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cairn | 5.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Dos Cuernos | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Lightning Dove | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Play the Break | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Shea’s Cool | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Jokasa | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 4 | Cause You Can | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Already Packed | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Super Wonderful | 6.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Ordinary Love | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Quiet Prediction | 30.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Miss Blue Dot | 5.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tiger Lisa | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Jonimarie | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 9 | Binary Bourbon | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Radar Vision | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Ashy Taty | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Pastiche | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | My Dark Secret | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 | Scr |
| 12 | 12 | Bunny Boss | 10.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Awesome Day | 6.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lonely Petunia | 5.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Betty’s Irish Jig | 20.00 | 11 | 21-1 | Scr |
| 13 | 13 | Just Like Jill | 15.00 | 12 | 23-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 6 | Beach Road | 15.00 | 12.3 | 23-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Alteration | 15.00 | 14.3 | 27-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Cipherin’ Sue | 15.00 | 14.8 | 28-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Musical America | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Crackin Jon | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Bluegrass Gem | 20.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Roskilde | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Conquest Wildcat | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Johnny Obvious | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Outrun the Posse | 3.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Crawford | 3.50 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Ceejay’s Mister | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Hollow Point | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Belgian | 12.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Takeoff | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Morocco | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Oxford Lane | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Alittlevodka | 50.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Space Mountain | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mambo At the Gym | 8.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Flash Harry | 8.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | D C Nine | 15.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Tobias | 30.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Royal Creed | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Iona Mobe | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Twin Farms | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Simsbury | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lighthawk | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Demolition | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 5 | Maximize | 6.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Loup | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Rigged | 12.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 6 | Ox Bro | 10.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Kilroy Was Here | 4.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | King of Candy | 15.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Greeley Can Win | 12.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 10 | Sargeant Drive | 12.00 | 12.5 | 24-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Mustang Cat | 30.00 | 15 | 28-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Bern’ James Bern | 12.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 4 | High Noon Rider | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Trust Factor | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | The Bull (AUS) | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Parlor | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Western Elegance | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Bondurant | 3.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Airoforce | 6.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 5 | Revved Up | 4.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Fish Trappe Road | 20.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Gliding Alone | 30.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Delphinia | 10.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 4 | Auntjenn | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Too Much Tip | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Nineteenth Street | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cara Blythe | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mythical Tale | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Promises Broken | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 14 | 8 | Minnie Blip | 5.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Perfect Wife | 10.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Girls Know Best | 15.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 8 | China Grove | 12.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | Swing and Sway | 6.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Laura B. | 12.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | Scr |
| 13 | 13 | Whole Scoop | 20.00 | 14.3 | 27-1 | Scr |
| 15 | 15 | Half a Go Go | 20.00 | 14.8 | 28-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Queen Elizabeth Ii Challenge Cup S. Presented By Lane’s End
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Dream Dancing | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | La Coronel | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Daddys Lil Darling | 20.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | New Money Honey | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Madam Dancealot (IRE) | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Proctor’s Ledge | 4.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Beau Recall (IRE) | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Uni (GB) | 4.50 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Wuheida (GB) | 4.00 | 8 | 15-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Con Te Partiro | 30.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Unforgetable Filly (GB) | 20.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | C Dub | 5.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Such a Tease | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Frank the Butcher | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | Makeamericagreat | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Belgrano | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Bee Jersey | 3.50 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | La Maquina Gris | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Victory Cigar | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Powerful Ally | 4.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Pleasantly Persist | 15.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Squardron Fourteen | 30.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Ukuru | 20.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.