October 13, 2017 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Safari Heart | 2.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Brunette | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | The Weef | 1.40 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Button Mushroom | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | War Eagle’s Love | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Pebble Slinger | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lady Margaret | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sharon’s Thunder | 10.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Mellow Fellow | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 5 | Nite of the Hunter | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Twirling Cinnamon | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Leroi’s Thrill | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Favorite Coach | 2.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | El Comander | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Vacanza | 5.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Chigger Bite | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 6 | Wild Will | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Fault Line | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Changer | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Ride On Faith | 3.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Blarney | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Athletic Temper | 2.50 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Gasaway | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 14 | True Loyalty | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Charlie de Hustle | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Nanoosh | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Dreaming of Jo Jo | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Go for Moonshine | 4.50 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Southsider | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Captive Kitten | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Navy Armed Guard | 4.50 | 8.3 | 16-1 | Scr |
| 15 | 15 | Soul Beam | 12.00 | 9 | 17-1 | Scr |
| 16 | 16 | Neverquitdreaming | 6.00 | 10 | 19-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 4 | Taranto | 5.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Blanco S | 30.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | All Hands On Deck | 8.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Cheytac | 4.00 | 12.5 | 24-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Super Factor | 15.00 | 13.8 | 26-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Piantagrane | 10.00 | 14 | 26-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 16 | Treasure in Heaven | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 3 | Charmin Dixie | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 1 | Pinot | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dagney’s Warrior | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 11 | 9 | Trust | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Tell Your Mama | 5.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Americagreatagain | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 14 | 12 | August Snow | 8.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Kojo’s Queen | 12.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Zoey’s My Girl | 12.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Mimi’s Ruby Bobby | 10.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Gorgeous in Rags | 12.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Flash n’ Dance | 3.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Sistas Ready | 20.00 | 13.8 | 26-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Angel Heritage | 20.00 | 14.8 | 28-1 | Scr |
| 13 | 11 | Tapit At Ann | 20.00 | 15.8 | 30-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Mo d’Amour | 2.00 | 2 | 4-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 4 | Hone In | 30.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Linda | 1.20 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | One Last Shot | 30.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 7 | Mo Knows | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Celestial Insight | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Res Ipsa | 6.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Inveniam Viam | 3.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lilly’s Dream | 8.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Rachel Wall | 15.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Psychoanalyze | 3.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Potential Danger | 10.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 5 | Promises Fulfilled | 2.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Nickie’s Papa | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Trappezoid | 3.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Smart Remark | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Dreamer’s Point | 6.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Keyed On Top | 30.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cutler | 30.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Momma’s Gift | 20.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Tap of War | 15.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ervsayslethergo | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Funny Holiday | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Awestruck | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Domonette | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Never Hungover | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Laney | 3.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | True Boots | 5.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sheplaysthefield | 5.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Abundant Flurry | 12.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Buffalo Trace Franklin County S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Kasuga | 4.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Ruby Notion | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 9 | Indriya | 30.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Miss Ella | 3.50 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Scatter Gun | 30.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Carolina Shag | 30.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Wheatfield | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 5 | Lull | 5.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Marquee Cal Gal | 15.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 3 | Boom Bam Bing | 30.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Nobody’s Fault | 8.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Always Thinking | 8.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Morticia | 4.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Childhood | 15.00 | 12 | 23-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Excessivespending | 20.00 | 13.3 | 25-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | Justa Lady | 10.00 | 13.8 | 26-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | United Patriot | 3.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Magnanimus Man | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Not Fake News | 4.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Crazy Ivan | 20.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Shakedown | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Thekidsback | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Birdies Honor | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tree Peeps | 8.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Rocky Roma | 15.00 | 9 | 17-1 | Scr |
| 12 | 12 | Hung Over On Gin | 20.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 14A | 14 | Miss You Jo | 15.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | Scr |
| 10A | 10 | Aint There No More | 15.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Zombie | 12.00 | 12 | 23-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Code Eleven Eleven | 15.00 | 12.3 | 23-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.