October 11, 2017 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
Prgm |
Post |
Name |
ML |
Expected |
Value |
Scr |
1 |
1 |
Clever Girl |
5.00 |
1.8 |
3-1 |
|
2 |
2 |
Eqho |
6.00 |
2.8 |
5-1 |
|
3 |
3 |
Yahtzee Queen |
4.50 |
3 |
6-1 |
|
5 |
5 |
La Manta Gris |
1.60 |
3.3 |
6-1 |
|
4 |
4 |
Downton Kitten |
2.00 |
5 |
9-1 |
|
6 |
6 |
Bootsy’s Girl |
20.00 |
5.3 |
10-1 |
|
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
Prgm |
Post |
Name |
ML |
Expected |
Value |
Scr |
5 |
6 |
Nuclear Option |
2.00 |
1 |
2-1 |
|
7 |
8 |
Fields of Dreams |
5.00 |
2.3 |
4-1 |
|
4 |
5 |
Stonewall Boy |
2.50 |
3.5 |
7-1 |
|
6 |
7 |
Just Blaze |
6.00 |
3.5 |
7-1 |
|
2 |
3 |
Mr. Gibbs |
6.00 |
4.8 |
9-1 |
|
3 |
4 |
Tiz Capitol |
10.00 |
6 |
11-1 |
|
1 |
1 |
Jova |
10.00 |
7.3 |
14-1 |
|
1A |
2 |
Peekacho |
10.00 |
7.8 |
15-1 |
|
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
Prgm |
Post |
Name |
ML |
Expected |
Value |
Scr |
3 |
3 |
Timeisnotourfriend |
4.00 |
2.3 |
4-1 |
Scr |
5 |
4 |
Monteleone |
3.00 |
2.5 |
5-1 |
|
7 |
6 |
Out of Hydeing |
12.00 |
2.8 |
5-1 |
|
6 |
5 |
Rockingham Mel |
5.00 |
4 |
8-1 |
|
1 |
1 |
Call Me |
8.00 |
5 |
9-1 |
|
9 |
7 |
Gambler’s Choice |
4.00 |
5.8 |
11-1 |
|
8 |
8 |
Nothings Changed |
15.00 |
6.8 |
13-1 |
Scr |
2 |
2 |
Burton |
8.00 |
7.5 |
14-1 |
|
4 |
3 |
Bread |
8.00 |
8.5 |
16-1 |
|
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
Prgm |
Post |
Name |
ML |
Expected |
Value |
Scr |
3 |
2 |
Como Se Llama |
5.00 |
1.8 |
3-1 |
|
2 |
1 |
Exactness |
6.00 |
3 |
6-1 |
|
14 |
14 |
Reeder |
5.00 |
4.5 |
9-1 |
Scr |
9 |
7 |
One Sock Mauk |
5.00 |
5 |
9-1 |
|
8 |
8 |
Include Indycat |
12.00 |
5 |
9-1 |
Scr |
6 |
5 |
Shooters Alley |
12.00 |
5.5 |
10-1 |
|
10 |
8 |
Swipernoswiping |
15.00 |
8.3 |
16-1 |
|
13 |
11 |
Ready by You |
8.00 |
8.8 |
17-1 |
|
7 |
6 |
Frost Or Frippery |
12.00 |
9 |
17-1 |
|
4 |
3 |
Nobadeer |
4.00 |
9.3 |
17-1 |
|
1 |
1 |
Good Samurai |
6.00 |
9.5 |
18-1 |
Scr |
11 |
9 |
Cataroux |
30.00 |
9.5 |
18-1 |
|
5 |
4 |
Trident Hero |
20.00 |
10.8 |
20-1 |
|
12 |
10 |
Fearless Majesty |
6.00 |
11.5 |
22-1 |
|
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
Prgm |
Post |
Name |
ML |
Expected |
Value |
Scr |
12 |
12 |
Bridaled Temper |
4.00 |
2 |
4-1 |
Scr |
1 |
1 |
Sunapee |
10.00 |
3 |
6-1 |
|
11 |
9 |
American Halo |
8.00 |
4.8 |
9-1 |
|
3 |
2 |
La Dame Blanche |
15.00 |
5.5 |
10-1 |
|
5 |
4 |
Going Out |
8.00 |
6 |
11-1 |
|
13 |
13 |
Kitten’s Covergirl |
8.00 |
6.5 |
12-1 |
Scr |
8 |
6 |
You Flatter Me |
20.00 |
6.5 |
12-1 |
|
4 |
3 |
Classy Act |
4.00 |
6.8 |
13-1 |
|
16 |
16 |
Luna Rosa |
12.00 |
9.5 |
18-1 |
Scr |
14 |
14 |
Lemon Drop Twist |
10.00 |
10.3 |
19-1 |
Scr |
15 |
10 |
Jukebox Money |
8.00 |
10.8 |
20-1 |
|
2 |
2 |
Tiz B B N |
30.00 |
11.5 |
22-1 |
Scr |
6 |
5 |
Zee Ro Drop |
12.00 |
12.3 |
23-1 |
|
7 |
7 |
Daddy Is a Legend |
3.00 |
12.3 |
23-1 |
Scr |
10 |
8 |
Ad In |
20.00 |
14.3 |
27-1 |
|
9 |
7 |
Lessons From Avery |
12.00 |
14.3 |
27-1 |
|
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
Prgm |
Post |
Name |
ML |
Expected |
Value |
Scr |
9 |
7 |
Lenstar |
5.00 |
1.8 |
3-1 |
|
8 |
8 |
Speedmeister |
4.00 |
2.8 |
5-1 |
Scr |
4 |
3 |
Zipp On By |
10.00 |
3 |
6-1 |
|
11 |
9 |
Gray Sky |
5.00 |
5.3 |
10-1 |
|
14 |
11 |
Spring d’Oro |
15.00 |
5.5 |
10-1 |
|
5 |
4 |
Running Back |
15.00 |
6 |
11-1 |
|
2 |
2 |
Benefactor |
5.00 |
6.5 |
12-1 |
|
1 |
1 |
C Z Rocket |
2.50 |
7 |
13-1 |
|
3 |
3 |
Heartwood |
20.00 |
7.3 |
14-1 |
Scr |
7 |
6 |
Totality |
20.00 |
8.8 |
17-1 |
|
13 |
10 |
Class Won |
10.00 |
9.5 |
18-1 |
|
12 |
12 |
Faction Cat |
10.00 |
11.5 |
22-1 |
Scr |
6 |
5 |
Mooose |
50.00 |
11.5 |
22-1 |
|
10 |
8 |
Fulkerson |
50.00 |
14 |
26-1 |
|
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Jpmorgan Chase Jessamine S.
Expected Order of Finish
Prgm |
Post |
Name |
ML |
Expected |
Value |
Scr |
16 |
16 |
Go Noni Go |
12.00 |
3.3 |
6-1 |
Scr |
1 |
1 |
Lady O’Toole |
6.00 |
4 |
8-1 |
|
8 |
8 |
Sunny Skies |
12.00 |
4.3 |
8-1 |
|
14 |
13 |
Rosie O’Prado |
30.00 |
4.8 |
9-1 |
|
10 |
10 |
Mentality |
6.00 |
5.3 |
10-1 |
|
9 |
9 |
Breaking Beauty |
15.00 |
6.3 |
12-1 |
|
12 |
12 |
Thewayiam (FR) |
12.00 |
7.5 |
14-1 |
Scr |
13 |
12 |
Layla Noor |
15.00 |
8.3 |
16-1 |
|
2 |
2 |
Rushing Fall |
3.00 |
8.5 |
16-1 |
|
4 |
4 |
Miss Mo Mentum |
5.00 |
9.5 |
18-1 |
|
6 |
6 |
Cash Out |
12.00 |
9.8 |
18-1 |
|
15 |
14 |
She’s All Skeet |
20.00 |
10 |
19-1 |
|
11 |
11 |
Sugar Queen |
8.00 |
13.3 |
25-1 |
|
5 |
5 |
Madame X. |
20.00 |
13.3 |
25-1 |
|
3 |
3 |
Stainless |
15.00 |
14 |
26-1 |
|
7 |
7 |
Punto de Entrada |
30.00 |
14.3 |
27-1 |
|
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
Prgm |
Post |
Name |
ML |
Expected |
Value |
Scr |
9 |
7 |
Science to Win |
50.00 |
4.5 |
9-1 |
|
8 |
8 |
Neapolitan |
10.00 |
4.8 |
9-1 |
Scr |
14 |
14 |
Toll Guard |
12.00 |
4.8 |
9-1 |
Scr |
7 |
6 |
Thegreatgeneration |
8.00 |
5.3 |
10-1 |
|
11 |
9 |
Fullback Foye |
8.00 |
6.5 |
12-1 |
|
6 |
5 |
Summer O Fiftyfour |
10.00 |
6.8 |
13-1 |
|
2 |
2 |
Surprise Prize |
6.00 |
7.8 |
15-1 |
|
3 |
3 |
Distorted Ransom |
10.00 |
8 |
15-1 |
|
12 |
10 |
Worthy |
4.00 |
8.8 |
17-1 |
|
4 |
4 |
Silver Cowboy |
6.00 |
9 |
17-1 |
Scr |
13 |
13 |
Chilling Secret |
3.00 |
9.3 |
17-1 |
Scr |
5 |
4 |
Cash That Check |
30.00 |
10.3 |
19-1 |
|
1 |
1 |
Arch Madness |
6.00 |
10.8 |
20-1 |
|
10 |
8 |
Crenshaw |
6.00 |
11.8 |
22-1 |
|
15 |
15 |
Missle Bomb |
5.00 |
12 |
23-1 |
Scr |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.