September 30, 2017 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Moon Gate Warrior | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Glitnir | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tapidor | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Core Portfolio | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lamu | 3.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Wildwoodsgreatest | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Eden Ridge | 5.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Linburgh’s Kitten | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 2 | Over Rider | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Flat Out Fast | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 8 | Alexandros | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1A | 6 | Analyzing | 3.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 9 | Unfailing | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 7 | Lngtermrelationshp | 3.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Street Cat Sam | 10.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Cajunman | 15.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Gull Island | 4.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tiz My Lady | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Economies of Scale | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Kai Nalu | 5.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Charlotte Marie | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Fetch’s Mon | 4.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Shy | 4.50 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Princess Prado | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | Loom | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 1A | 9 | B Rockett | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Tap It All | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Sully’s Dream | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Princess Princess | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 13 | Stonetacular | 2.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 11 | 12 | Julerette | 4.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 8 | Burma Road | 3.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Lilly’s Dream | 3.50 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Shes a True Beauty | 8.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Curl the Pearl | 12.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Conquest Bandido | 10.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 5 | You Cheated | 15.00 | 13 | 25-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Clever Serve | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Greely’s Comet | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Proud Dixie | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Soul Strategy | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Frigidish | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Stay Spicy | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Witticism | 3.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Chasing the Buck | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Curlins Vow | 3.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Whole Lotta Luck | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | His Royal Majesty | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Perfect Partner | 1.40 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Dream It Again | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Cass in Stone | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Skinflint | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Spatetacular Joe | 30.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Party Club | 5.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Key Moment | 12.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Chocolate Martini | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | She’s Pretty Lucky | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Go Google Yourself | 5.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Caramel Cream | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Charcuterie | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Don’t Tell Marge | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mia d’Oro | 2.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dance Rhythms | 5.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Splashing | 15.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Will Ye Go Lassie | 30.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Jefferson Cup S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Guest Suite | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Giant Payday | 4.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mr. Misunderstood | 1.40 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | My Bariley | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Your Way | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Adonis Creed | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bronson | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Mr Cub | 8.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Lukas Classic S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Money Flows | 5.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Eagle | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Seeking the Soul | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Honorable Duty | 1.20 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Flashy Jewel | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Fear the Cowboy | 4.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Albano | 30.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Ack Ack S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | The Player | 5.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Awesome Slew | 1.20 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Conquest Big E | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Warrior’s Club | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Harmac | 30.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Gray Sky | 30.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Zulu | 4.50 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Pinson | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Etruscan | 30.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | One Last Strike | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Gottsacker | 15.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Bold Prophet | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Big Dollar Bill | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Dig Charlie Dig | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Jon Knowsthecode | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Tiz That | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Elsie Time | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Victory Cigar | 15.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Wazzup Chuck | 15.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Big Bad Zin | 8.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Photo Moment | 15.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 1A | 14 | Hear Bout It Later | 15.00 | 12 | 23-1 | Scr |
| 13 | 13 | General Swag | 20.00 | 13.8 | 26-1 | Scr |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.