September 28, 2017 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Tapster | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Doctor Lee | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Worthy | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Chilling Secret | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Fightingjoewheeler | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Hatter’s Run | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Dirty Day | 6.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Pistone Steel | 5.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Hey Bro | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Man of Stature | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Circle Unbroken | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Twirling Cinnamon | 4.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Court’s Ruling | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Aurora’s Kid | 6.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 5 | Glennwood | 1.20 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Nasty Critter | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Majestic Force | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Rocky Roma | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Aspiretogreatness | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Miss You Jo | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Munney Heist | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Lavaca | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Colombiano | 15.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | La Majestique | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Maryblueeyes | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Queenofthepalace (NZ) | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Lake Turkana | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Eqho | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Industrial Policy | 3.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Bella Be Proud | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Katie the Cutie | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tiz Taken Back | 30.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Wine Halo | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Lady Warrior | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Tiger Lisa | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Foxy Mischief | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Shanghai Tariff | 5.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Mo Chara | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Skeptic | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Miz K | 6.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Palmilla Moon | 6.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Royal Road | 5.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Cash Tiz Wonderful | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Very Elegant | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Pemba | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Benchmark Babe | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Red Panther | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | In Focus | 4.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Gem Digger | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Maleficent Queen | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Three Natty Patty | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Seeking the Rose | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 5 | Monomoy Girl | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Saucy At Midnight | 10.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Moonlight Rain | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1A | 9 | Classy Music | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Traum’s Dream | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Malibu Saint | 3.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Flight Queen | 6.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 3 | Honor With Pride | 6.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Cinema Doll | 15.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | She’s a Gypsy | 10.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Golden Rose | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Latest Version | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Foxtrot Sally | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Elusive Truth | 4.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Good Creation | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Querceta | 6.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Silver Turns Gold | 4.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Infinite Grace | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Jan One | 12.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bodega Bay | 10.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.