September 17, 2017 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Sneaky Betty | 3.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Desert Poem | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | She’s Got a Shot | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Awesome Gal | 4.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Greeley and Ariana | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Honor’s Parade | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Willowamina | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 7 | Perfect Prize | 20.00 | 7.1 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Princessdaisyleigh | 15.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Evenscore | 15.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 8 | Tied Up | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Silver Turns Gold | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 5 | Bunker | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Friendly and Kind | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Rose Candy | 4.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Honor Bar | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 1 | Honor With Pride | 4.50 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Love to Learn | 30.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Betty’s Irish Jig | 15.00 | 7.1 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Bristol’s Brooke | 10.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Latent Revenge | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Snow Leopard | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Rivers Run Deep | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Blue Wings | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Platinum Prince | 2.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Balandeen | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tell All You Know | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 4 | Benediction | 2.50 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Perfect Movement | 1.80 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Dr. Philan | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Walker’s Way | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Memorial Blue | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tabaddol | 3.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | Nan’s Pierce Arrow | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 5 | Midnight’s Fantasy | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Run You Down | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Turnaround | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Twin Farms | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 9 | Grade One | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Bow Ready | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Enjoy the Journey | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 12 | 12 | Puertorican Style | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Charge Card | 30.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Not Fake News | 5.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Cove Blue | 8.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Komrad | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Gotta Go | 8.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Payne | 8.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | Scr |
| 14 | 14 | Presidio | 12.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | Cause to Action | 10.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Fayetteville | 20.00 | 10.7 | 20-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Naughty Little Nun | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Dagney’s Revenge | 12.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Ruby Dusk | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Angelo’s Ashes | 2.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | Pretty Greeley | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Darion’s Dream | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sales Call | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Witticism | 10.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Rubus | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Bernabridge | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Ride a Comet | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Private Eye | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Funny Duck | 3.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Maximus Luck | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Tapitor | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Dry Martini | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 10 | Bourne in Nixa | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Title Ready | 3.50 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Best of Greeley | 10.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | Nanoosh | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Promises Fulfilled | 12.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Sir Sahib | 15.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Boots | 15.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 4 | Leo Meister | 20.00 | 10.7 | 20-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Taketothestreets | 6.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Fish Trappe Road | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 8 | Manhattan Mischief | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 4 | Forge Ahead Franki | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Speightsong | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 2 | All Shacked Up | 6.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Handiwork | 6.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 5 | Tashreeh | 5.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Paden | 8.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Stormy Pacific | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 10 | Uncontested | 2.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Hunka Burning Love | 10.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Enchantera | 15.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Major Munnings | 2.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Just Move On | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Happy Farm | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Line Judge | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 8 | Shadow Tracer | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Johnny Obvious | 15.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Reckling | 15.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Conquest Wildcat | 12.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 11 | Mellow Fellow | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 18A | 18 | Ironclad | 0.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Sportscaster | 4.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 13 | 10 | Purely Boy | 3.50 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dujac | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 15A | 15 | Bluegrass Bronco | 0.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Zander Zone | 15.00 | 7.1 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 11 | 11 | Oathkeeper | 30.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 7 | Stormy Going | 8.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Eidmilaad | 4.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 17 | 17 | Lieutenant Seany O | 8.00 | 9 | 17-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 5 | Element | 20.00 | 11.6 | 22-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Modern Medicine | 12.00 | 11.7 | 22-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Futile | 15.00 | 12.1 | 23-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Mr. Tickle | 12.00 | 12.3 | 23-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Vedelago (IRE) | 6.00 | 14 | 26-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Limonte | 12.00 | 15.4 | 29-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Gabriel’s Cat | 15.00 | 15.9 | 30-1 | Scr |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.