September 17, 2017 Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Carve | 5.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | John’s Island | 1.80 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Match Up | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Are We Not Men | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Paid Admission | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Chosen One Elijah | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Magnanimus Man | 0.00 | 0.9 | 2-1 | |
| 7A | 7 | Day of Reckoning | 0.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 4 | Final Blessing | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Whyamisolucky | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5A | 5 | Shanghai Storm | 0.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Fortune Cookie | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Blinded Vision | 2.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | I’m an Ocala Dude | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 5 | Guyanese | 30.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Saratoga Wildcat | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Schivarelli | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Special Jo | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Old Upstart | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Nominal Dollars | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Play Big | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Driving Me Crazy | 5.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 2 | Sammy Wonder Stone | 8.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | No Deal | 3.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mad Dog Matters | 20.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 3 | Princess Char | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Ornamental Iron | 15.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Celebrity Glitter | 2.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Danyelli | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Barrier Island | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Volodina | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Patriot Drive | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 6 | Hembree | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Liberal Spin | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | California Swing | 3.50 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Island Therapy | 30.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Shadow Rider | 2.50 | 6.1 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | Dr. Edgar | 6.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Reedini | 8.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 4 | Any Questions | 12.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Mohican | 10.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Acoustic | 10.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | E J’s Legacy | 15.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Facade | 20.00 | 10.7 | 20-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Holding Aces | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Avast Matey | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Top Fortitude | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Combat Controller | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Toohottoevenspeak | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Gotham News | 4.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Notorious | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Southern Union | 30.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Fiveinthemorning | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4A | 4 | Terrificville | 0.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1A | 4 | Dats Her | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Blue Atlas | 2.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lady of Miracles | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 10 | Southern Gal | 4.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Unparalleled | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Lulu’s Partner | 0.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Stone Cold Flirt | 12.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Kreesie | 5.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Pound Note | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Pretty River | 5.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2A | 2 | Iron Power | 0.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Uncle Sigh | 10.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Nevisian Sky | 4.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 3 | Converge | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Wicked Freud | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | West Hills Giant | 3.50 | 6.7 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 7 | With Exultation | 8.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 16A | 16 | Becker’s Galaxy | 0.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Dream Doctor | 15.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Cliffs of Dover | 20.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Dot Matrix | 15.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Yummy Bear | 12.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Excluded | 20.00 | 10.9 | 21-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Manifest Destiny | 20.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Jewel Can Disco | 2.50 | 11.3 | 21-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 5 | Leaveematthegate | 20.00 | 13.1 | 25-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | Gucci Factor | 3.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 10A | 10 | Heavy Meddle | 0.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Here Comes Tommy | 15.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Gaming | 5.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Mission Command | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Benevolence | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Italian Syndicate | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Gorelli | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2A | 2 | The Caretaker | 0.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Bear Clause | 30.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Paz the Wine | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | The Two Nancy’s | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 12 | 12 | Madame Ambassador | 4.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Forever Rising | 5.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Mazmania | 30.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Nothingbutasmile | 6.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Passing Reminder | 20.00 | 7.1 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 15 | 15 | Sharp Lacey | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 | Scr |
| 16 | 16 | Cetara | 6.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 8 | Youth Gone Wild | 15.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Justenuff Hope | 20.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Pure Gemmz | 8.00 | 10.7 | 20-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Holyholyholy | 12.00 | 10.7 | 20-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Indian Gem | 10.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Shrink | 12.00 | 11.7 | 22-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cirque | 20.00 | 13.4 | 25-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.